IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 1:04 AM EDT602
FXUS63 KIWX 150504
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
104 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Lake effect rain showers likely near Lake Michigan overnight
and again Tuesday night.
* Cool weather persists into mid-week with frost/freeze potential,
mainly Wednesday morning and Thursday morning.
* Temperatures moderate late in the week into this weekend with dry
conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Lake effect rain and the eventual need for frost/freeze headlines
remain the primary focus through mid week with cold cyclonic nnw
flow established. Trailing vort lobe and associated trough axis drop
south through the area tonight into early Tuesday. Low level flow
trajectories have already begun to back more to the nw in advance,
allowing a relatively intense lake effect rain band and well defined
convergent axis to edge back east into our nnw flow lake effect
belts. This lake aggregate trough/plume then curls farther southeast
and links up with the synoptic scale trough dropping through later
this evening into early Tuesday with increasing rain shower chances
further inland. Coldest air of the season will filter in behind the
trough on Tuesday with 850 mb temps dropping to near -5C. Highs will
struggle to reach the upper 40s to low 50s with brisk northerly flow
making for a raw mid October day. Dry otherwise for mid morning
Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon as the lake plume focuses back west
over or just west of the IL state line. This activity does
eventually shift back east into our nw zones Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with additional rain shower chances.
As for the frost/freeze potential, there could be just enough late
night CAA and partial clearing to push temps into the low-mid 30s
toward daybreak tomorrow in our far north. Expectations for a
frost/freeze remain very low however given lingering clouds/winds,
supported by <30% HREF/NBM probs for near freezing temps. Held off
on any headlines given the low probability. A frost/freeze headline
will likely be needed at some point for Wed AM outside of the lake
modified plume (best chances east of US 31), and especially for Thur
AM CWA-wide as low level ridging builds in. Dry and trending warmer
thereafter as south-southwest flow develops under a building ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
Lake effect rain showers will generally be west of KSBN going
forward, though a shower may sneak in this hour (05z). Water
vapor indicates the trough axis responsible for this southeast
bend in the lake effect has now passed over the lake, allowing
the localized bend in the lake effect to cease soon. A north-
south oriented lake band is anticipated today. KSBN could see
some stratus from this activity late today, but VFR remains.
Currently, ceilings across the region are rather uniform near
5,000 ft which bolsters confidence in the ceiling forecast
in the critical TAF period. Increasing subsidence this
afternoon ought to allow for some SCT of the cloud deck and
perhaps a wind gust near 20 knots or so.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 1:04 AM EDT---------------
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