IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 7:17 PM EDT186
FXUS63 KIWX 142317
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
717 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Lake effect rain showers likely near Lake Michigan into
tonight, and again Tuesday night.
* Cool weather persists into mid-week with frost/freeze potential,
mainly Wednesday morning and Thursday morning.
* Temperatures moderate late in the week into this weekend with dry
conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Lake effect rain and the eventual need for frost/freeze headlines
remain the primary focus through mid week with cold cyclonic nnw
flow established. Trailing vort lobe and associated trough axis drop
south through the area tonight into early Tuesday. Low level flow
trajectories have already begun to back more to the nw in advance,
allowing a relatively intense lake effect rain band and well defined
convergent axis to edge back east into our nnw flow lake effect
belts. This lake aggregate trough/plume then curls farther southeast
and links up with the synoptic scale trough dropping through later
this evening into early Tuesday with increasing rain shower chances
further inland. Coldest air of the season will filter in behind the
trough on Tuesday with 850 mb temps dropping to near -5C. Highs will
struggle to reach the upper 40s to low 50s with brisk northerly flow
making for a raw mid October day. Dry otherwise for mid morning
Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon as the lake plume focuses back west
over or just west of the IL state line. This activity does
eventually shift back east into our nw zones Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with additional rain shower chances.
As for the frost/freeze potential, there could be just enough late
night CAA and partial clearing to push temps into the low-mid 30s
toward daybreak tomorrow in our far north. Expectations for a
frost/freeze remain very low however given lingering clouds/winds,
supported by <30% HREF/NBM probs for near freezing temps. Held off
on any headlines given the low probability. A frost/freeze headline
will likely be needed at some point for Wed AM outside of the lake
modified plume (best chances east of US 31), and especially for Thur
AM CWA-wide as low level ridging builds in. Dry and trending warmer
thereafter as south-southwest flow develops under a building ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Lake effect rain showers could continue to cause on and off MVFR
conditions at SBN for the next several hours. Not confident that
they will impact FWA, so went with VCSH for now. As winds shift
more northeasterly tonight, this should push the convective
bands westward and away from the terminals. Ceilings will lift
some on Tuesday, but complete clearing is not expected until
probably Thursday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Cobb
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 7:17 PM EDT---------------
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