MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 19, 6:28 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...683
FXUS64 KMOB 191128
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period along with light
and variable winds. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Dry conditions will persist through Monday as deep ridging becomes
reestablished across the southeast states. Skies will be mostly
clear to clear, along with warmer temperatures and light north
winds shifting to the east. High temperatures this afternoon will
rebound to near to above seasonal norms, ranging from the mid to
upper 80s for most locations, with a few lower 80s possible along
the beaches. Lows tonight will be above normal, ranging from 62 to
66 degrees interior areas and from 66 to 71 degrees close to the
coast. High temperatures Monday should be in the mid to upper 80s
for most locations, and around 90 degrees across southeast
Mississippi. /22
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Dry and warm weather is expected through much of this week as an
upper level ridge builds in from the southwestern Gulf. Surface
high pressure will keep winds mainly out of the east on Tuesday
before shifting to the south on Wednesday. High temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s most afternoons
with lows falling into the 60s inland and the lower 70s along the
coast. The next chance for rain tries to enter back into the
forecast on Friday and potentially on Saturday as the upper ridge
flattens and a shortwave slides eastward across the Mid South and
Southeastern States. A weak front associated with this shortwave
feature will push into the Midsouth and Southeastern States, but
there is still some question as to how far south the front will go
given the dominating surface high pressure to our east. For now,
have maintained the 15-25% PoP over interior portions of southeast
Mississippi, southwest and south central Alabama on Friday
afternoon, but it's possible that the influence of the surface
high pressure could keep better subsidence in place and therefore
limit rain chances. There's also the possiblity that the shortwave
could become more amplified which would increase rain chances
over interior areas. We'll continue to narrow down the specifics
as we get closer in time and in the meantime, enjoy the dry, warm,
and mostly sunny skies. /14
MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Light and variable winds through Monday night will be followed by
a light southeasterly to southerly flow Tuesday through Thursday.
/22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 88 66 89 68 86 67 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 87 69 85 70 84 70 84 70 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 85 71 85 71 84 71 83 72 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 87 64 88 64 89 63 90 65 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 87 63 89 66 89 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 84 64 86 64 87 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 88 64 88 63 88 63 88 65 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 19, 6:28 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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