JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 11:14 PM EDT793
FXUS63 KJKL 170314
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1114 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frost or freezing temperatures are expected in most places by
early Thursday morning.
- Frost will still be possible through Saturday night but to a
lesser extent.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2024
Cloud cover is gradually subsiding southwestward and eroding late
this evening. This should allow for a quick drop in temperatures
into the 30s area-wide by around 2 AM EDT. Additional cloud cover
may sneak into from the West Virginia border toward morning as
low-level flow turns more northeasterly. Should that materialize,
temperature would would probably be held up a few degrees over
the Big Sandy River Basin. Dew point crossover temperatures from
earlier in the day are generally a few to several degrees above
freezing which will likely favor at least some thin patchy fog
formation in many sheltered valleys and over the Bluegrass/
Pennyroyal Plateau before turning into frost as temperatures dip
below freezing. However, broader valleys near mainstem rivers have
a better chance for fog becoming thick enough to halt/slow
temperature falls and inhibit a widespread frost. Forecast lows
are in the upper 20s to near 30 in many of the sheltered
valleys/hollows away from larger bodies of water and also in low-
lying areas along and west of the Escarpment. A few readings down
to 26 or 27F are possible in the coldest spots. Minimum
temperatures in mainstem river valleys are mainly forecast to be
in the lower 30s. Expected lows over ridgetops are primarily in
the middle 30s.
UPDATE Issued at 705 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2024
Mid-level cloud cover, associated with moisture streaming off of
Lake Michigan, continues to drift across eastern Kentucky at
update time. Still expect the cloud cover to gradually dissipate
later this evening and into the early overnight hours. This should
permit temperatures to drop off quickly to near and below
freezing across our region for several hours before sunrise.
Adjusted sky cover upwards, mainly in the next 2 to 4 hours, to
account for cloud cover observed by satellite.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2024
Current surface analysis is largely quiet across the CONUS as a
large dome of high pressure is situated over the Mid Mississippi
River Valley. Flow around the surface high, coupled with upper-level
northerly flow is advecting low-level moisture into the region and as
a result, a widespread deck of strato-cumulus clouds have developed.
This widespread cloud deck has suppressed high temperatures across
the area as most places has peaked to their highs due to the cloud
cover limiting the potential to heat up a few more degrees. This
will have impacts on the overnight forecast, as this cloud deck is
expected to erode with drier air moving in, because cooler
temperatures daytime highs will allow for lower nighttime lows. As a
result of the expected lack of cloud cover, light winds and the
ability for overnight lows to be a few degrees cooler than expected;
the afternoon forecast package upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze
Warning through Thursday morning. While not every place will dip
below freezing, a large portion of the CWA will and thus the upgrade.
Thursday will feature upper-level height rises and surface high
pressure continuing to nudge eastward into the region. With this
combination, slightly warmer temperatures are expected as highs are
forecast to approach 60 and maybe squeak out a few low-60s. Thursday
night will bring around another night widespread cold temperatures
and frost; however, lows will not be as cold but a few upper-20s
will be possible in the more sheltered valleys. High pressure will
linger into Friday morning and into the long term forecast period.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by growing season
ending cold temperatures and widespread frost. A relative warm-up is
on the horizon for the end of the period as winds turn easterly and
advect those warmer temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 618 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2024
The models are in good agreement with the long term pattern
through the period. The pattern starts out amplified across North
America. A seasonably strong ridge will be aligned from the
Northwestern Passages through the Great Lakes, as well as the Ohio
and Tennessee valleys, while troughing is established from south
central Canada through the Desert Southwest. Through the first
half of the weekend, a cutoff low will meander near the Four
Corners region, while ridging remains in place east of the
Mississippi River. The cutoff low will then eject northeast on
Sunday, reaching the central High Plains by Monday morning. This
system will migrate east northeast and also generally dampen with
time. By Tuesday, the feature will be crossing the Ohio Valley,
although with models differ on the timing and amplitude of it by
that time. The GFS remains progressive and less amplified, while
the ECMWF is slower and deeper. There are also upstream detail
differences within faster flow that also allow for more spread in
model solutions by the middle of next week.
For eastern Kentucky, dry weather is expected, as ridging aloft
and at the surface hold sway through the majority of the period.
Drier air in the column will allow good diurnal swings each day.
This pattern generally favors cooler valley lows than the blended
guidance suggests, as well as slightly warmer highs, especially,
as the surface high shifts off to our east, and at least modest
return flow ensues across the region. Lows will moderate from the
30s and 40s this weekend, to the 40s and 50s by the middle of
next week, with widening ridge/valley temperature splits towards
the end of the period. Highs will remain in the 60s on Friday,
but then warm through the 70s each day thereafter.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2024
A VFR cloud deck at ~5000 feet AGL was dropping south across the
region at TAF issuance. Anticipate that this cloud cover will
gradually clear away between 2 and 7Z. Additional cloud cover
could sneak into far northeastern Kentucky near the West Virginia
border toward sunrise. Additionally, fog may develop in the
deeper river valleys and also over portions of Central Kentucky
adjacent to KSME and and KSYM late tonight. Even so, VFR
conditions are anticipated at the terminals through the period.
Winds are forecast to be largely light and variable.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 11:14 PM EDT---------------
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