ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 8:43 AM EDT163
FXUS61 KILN 161243
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
843 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Northerly flow persists today with below normal temperatures
across the region. This cold air intrusion will remain in place
through Thursday, with temperatures warming a little bit each
day into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update is primarily to expire the freeze warning/frost advisory
this morning. Temperatures have not dropped to at or below
freezing for any appreciable area and/or time frame, and there
will not be any counties removed from the frost/freeze program.
As expected, winds have been a little stubborn overnight,
keeping temperatures between 34 and 39 degrees in some of the
more wind prone areas. However, many sheltered locations (like
Lancaster, OH airport) are observing below freezing
temperatures. This chilly start to the day won't warm quickly as
a persistent northerly wind between 10 to 15 mph is forecast
through the afternoon with surface high pressure sitting off to
the west. Low- level moisture will aid in cumulus development
during the mid-morning, and that also helps in keeping high
temperatures limited to values more likely in mid-November.
Cloud cover begins to decrease during the evening hours, and the
winds will follow, setting the stage for another round of
frost/freezing temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
It is still unclear if this minor freeze event this morning
will be enough to end the frost/freeze program is some areas so
additional frost/freeze headlines are likely needed for tonight.
These will be issued by the next forecast shift after an
assessment is completed regarding low temperatures this
morning. Given the higher chance for lighter winds, and the high
pressure building in from the south, more widespread
temperature values between 30 to 33 degrees are expected.
The high pressure continues to build over the region during the
afternoon, supporting light and variable winds. Abundant
sunshine will modify the cooler air mass, resulting in high
temperatures around the 60 degree mark. This is still about five
degrees below normal for this time in October.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An extensive ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft
will remain over our region Friday into Monday. Skies will be
mostly sunny during the day and mostly clear at night. The
airmass will gradually modify each day, allowing for a warming
trend. A favorable radiational cooling setup will persist during
this period. Thus, highs and lows will show more of a diurnal
swing. Will continue to mention frost and/or freezing
temperatures for Friday morning and Saturday morning until we
can determine if the Frost/Freeze Program will come to an end
based on Wednesday and Thursday morning lows. Highs in the mid
and upper 60s on Friday will warm into the 70s for this weekend
and into early next week. Lows mainly in the 30s Friday morning
will warm into the upper 30s and mid 40s by Monday morning.
It appears that the high pressure ridge will shift east by
Tuesday, allowing a mid level s/wv to approach from the west. At
this point, the system seems to be weakening and lacks
substantial moisture. Thus, will maintain a dry forecast for
now, but will allow for some more clouds. Lows in the 40s will
warm into the lower to mid 70s once again.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect VFR stratocumulus to form around 4kft today before
clearing after 00Z.
Winds will remain out of the northwest through the period, with
values of around 5 knots early this morning, and 10-12 knots
later this afternoon. Winds calm after 00Z Thursday. Can't rule
out some patchy fog in spots, but left mention out of TAFs due
to low confidence.
For CVG, light and variable winds are forecast Thursday after
12Z so no additional FM group was added.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...Franks/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 8:43 AM EDT---------------
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