PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 11:32 PM CDT732
FXUS63 KPAH 160432
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight. Another perhaps even
more favorable setup for frost is expected Wednesday night.
It's possible a few of the coldest locations each night could
dip to the freezing mark for daybreak lows.
- Unseasonably cold mid week highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
will eventually moderate back into the 70s by this weekend,
continuing into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
Anticipate clearing skies tonight as the heart of the mean long
wave trof axis makes passage, and cool/dry surface high pressure
moves in. While we still anticipate frost with a Frost Advisory
headline in effect, the surface high pressure ridge will still
be to the west come daybreak Wednesday, so despite clearing
skies, a light gradient may provide enough wind to retard the
overall expanse of the frost development/coverage as
temperatures drop into the lower to middle 30s; at least with
respect to the following night, when the center of the high
translates overhead and little/no wind exists. Per
collaboration, we'll hold onto that headline tonight, let it
play out, then afterward, we'll address the ensuing night
(Wednesday night/Thursday morning) and its necessity for headline
issuance.
The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged, with a dry,
high pressure dominated pattern and a signal toward a return to
a warmer, more seasonal air mass. Cool mid week highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s will transition back into the 70s by this
weekend. Similarly, these frost potential lows in the lower-mid
30s will rebound back into/thru the 40s over the same time
frame.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
Light N-NW winds at 5 kts or less will continue overnight as
high pressure builds eastward across the region. Some lake
effect clouds are possible at EVV and OWB in the 15-21z period,
but bases should be 5kft or higher. Winds will pick up again
from the N to NW at 5-10 kts during the daytime hours. As high
pressure become centered over the area, winds will go calm
Wednesday night under clear skies.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ Wednesday for INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 11:32 PM CDT---------------
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