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597 FXUS64 KMOB 102103AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL403 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Friday)Issued at 403 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024Surface high pressure will build into the north central Gulf Coastregion through Friday afternoon. A deeply dry airmass will remainfirmly entrenched over our forecast area through Friday, allowingfor clear skies and dry weather conditions. Temperatures will bepleasantly cool tonight with lows ranging in the lower to mid 50sover interior locations and in the upper 50s to mid 60s closer tothe immediate coast. Highs on Friday will generally range fromaround 80 degrees to the mid 80s. Light northerly winds, along with subsiding surf and swell haveallowed for calmer conditions along area beaches this afternoon.Beach reports indicate that rip currents are fewer and weaker, so we have cancelled the High rip current risk that was in effect.A Low rip current risk is anticipated for the next several days./21&&.LONG TERM... (Friday night through Thursday)Issued at 403 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues through the weekend beforea massive longwave trough digs into the eastern half of the CONUS. Flow aloft will briefly turn more zonal as the trough approaches the area, returning back to a strong northwesterly flowaloft after the trough axis passes overhead on Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure over the southeast US shifts into the western Atlantic towards the end of the weekend, allowing for winds to turn more southerly by Sunday and into Monday. A strong cold front is poised to approach the area on Monday, quickly sweeping through the area Monday night. With a lack of any deep layer moisture (PWATs only increasing to around 1.0 to 1.2 inches along and ahead of the front), no rain is anticipated as the frontpushes through. In its wake, strong high pressure builds in from the north, helping to advect in a much cooler and drier airmass into the area. Temperatures over the weekend will experience a warming trend as winds shift to an onshore flow. Highs will increase from the low to mid 80s on Saturday to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by Monday. Similarly, cool lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s Friday night will moderate to the upper 50s to low 60s by Sunday night. After the front passes, highs by midweek look to only reach the upper 60s to low 70s, even under sunny skies. Lows tumble into the low to mid 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast. /96&&.MARINE...Issued at 403 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024Marine observations indicate that northeasterly flow hasdiminished with subsiding seas this afternoon. The Small CraftAdvisory that was in effect has been cancelled. Winds may brieflypick back up from the east-northeast late tonight, especially welloffshore where exercise caution headlines will be in place. Offshore winds will remain light throughout the weekend before the next front arrives and brings increased northerly to northeasterly flowduring the early to middle part of next week. /21 &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 58 83 55 83 57 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 62 81 60 81 60 83 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 63 80 61 80 62 81 67 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 52 81 49 82 51 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 54 83 50 85 53 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 52 81 49 83 53 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 52 81 48 83 48 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
