PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 11:11 PM EDT609
FXUS61 KPBZ 160311
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1111 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and unsettled weather through Wednesday with frost/freeze
potential through this weekend. Warmer and drier weather returns
for the weekend through next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Frost/freeze concerns tonight in the higher elevations and
portions of eastern Ohio.
- Shower chances continue through Wednesday with below average
temperatures.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Despite the loss of daytime heating, weak troughing and
shortwave energy will maintain scattered showers through the
overnight with even some flurries possibly mixing in north and
east of Pittsburgh where surface temperatures can cool and very
light snow accumulations possible in the highest terrain (i.e.
Eastern Tucker). Warm surface temperatures will likely preclude
more than an isolated dusting. Cold advection aloft and lake
moisture in continued northwest flow will also increase low
cloud coverage overnight. The other forecast note to monitor
for overnight tonight will be the potential for localized
freezing fog across parts of WV where nighttime microphysics
satellite and observations indicate visibility restrictions
already developing where rain fell today and skies have remained
clearer.
Overcast conditions should keep temperatures above freezing
outside of the ridges. The exception to this will be in the
Zanesville area, where a cloud gradient is expected. Areas on
the clearer side of this gradient will see cooler temperatures
and possible frost development. A frost advisory is highlighted in
Coshocton and Muskingum Counties, but temperatures will largely
depend on whether the cloud gradient sets up to the east of the
area (warmer scenario) or to the west of these counties (cooler
scenario). In the cold scenario, isolated freezing is also
possible. Freeze Warnings are also in effect for the ridges and
Jefferson/Forest counties where below-freezing temperatures are
expected.
Wednesday will feature a more shallow, saturated, surface-based
unstable layer, though warm advection around the 700mb level
will act to shrink the unstable layer through the day. With
surface winds bring in air with a sizable Huron/Erie fetch,
showers remain possible, with an axis of "most-likely"
precipitation into eastern Ohio and the West Virginia panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A warming and drying trend with morning frost/freeze chances.
--------------------------------------------------------------
As the trough moves off to the southeast through the late-week
period, temperatures are expected to gradually increase as a
central CONUS ridge moves closer. At this point, a couple of
solutions to the 500mb flow pattern are possible. First, the
trough axis amplifies slightly and eventually closes off from
the flow, lingering off the mid-Atlantic coast. In the second,
the trough never develops a cut off low and moves into the
Atlantic faster. Under both scenarios, ridging is likely,
through a lingering cut off may result in temperatures maybe a
degree of two cooler.
Cold air aloft will supply frost/freeze chances Thursday
morning, while clear skies and efficient cooling will allow
frost/freeze chances thereafter. Cloud cover may hang around as
late as Thursday, even with high pressure overhead due to lake-
enhanced moisture, but scattering is expected through the day.
Through the rest of the period, clear, dry, and warm is the
theme. Temperatures may get back to around or just above average
on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Clear, dry, and warm under high pressure.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Despite how we arrive at the final destination, all ensemble
scenarios converge on high confidence in an eastern ridge
through this weekend and the beginning of next week. Clustered
ensembles are convergent in the 500mb height field, with all
showing somewhere between 582dm and 588dm heights overhead.
This would suggest warm and dry. What does that mean for this
time of year? Likely no frost/freeze headlines, and high
temperatures into the 70s for most areas.
One item that may warrant watching is fire weather. With warmer
and drier conditions, ongoing drought, and leaf-fall over parts
of the area, drying fuel moistures are possible, however this
pattern would not be necessarily conducive to gusty winds.
Beyond the forecast, the area is 60% to 80% likely to maintain
above average temperatures from next week through the end of
the month, with a slight lean towards drier as well.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This evening, chances of rain will likely be confided north of
PIT. However, cigs are expected to drop farther downstream of
the lake between 07Z to 09Z with cold advection; MVFR cigs is
likely.
The MVFR/low VFR ceilings will persist through the majority of
the day tomorrow. Late morning/early afternoon, winds are
expected to pick up, with most terminals expecting northwesterly
gusts between 16-18KT. Hi-Res model guidance depicts shower
chances organized between ZZV and PIT due to strong fetch from
Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Therefore, mentioned a drop in vis
with PROB30 for HLG and BVI. However, it could be expanded
farther east and as far south as MGW.
.Outlook...
High pressure is expected to filter in on Thursday with a
continuous northwesterly flow. This along with rising heights
will bring prolonged VFR conditions and dry weather back to our
terminals.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ009-016-074-076.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ048-057.
WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ510>513.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Rackley/MLB/Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Milcarek
LONG TERM...Milcarek
AVIATION...Hefferan/Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 11:11 PM EDT---------------
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