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375 FXUS64 KLIX 090835AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA335 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024The conditions everyone is observing is what will continue not only for the short term but well into the extended given some moderation of temps here and there.We will reinstate the coastal flood advisory. The reason for this is fairly straight forward. The front that moved through has stalled in the nearshore waters and still has a negating impact on tide levels but it won't be nearly strong enough to negate the dynamic fetch from Milton as it compresses these tidal currrents along the FL coast. The water flows with the wind direction up the FL west coast and bends westward over the NE gulf into our east facing shoreline. As the hurricane gets closer to land, the storm compresses this flow which speeds the flow of water up along this dynamic trajectory. The highest waters levels should come with high tide which occurs during the night hours around 4am for most locations. These levels will be higher than previous levels and could be around a half foot higher than a few days ago.&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024The nice dry conditions are expected to continue well into the extended fcast. By next Mon or Tue, we should see another cold front move to or past the area. This front should also be dry as high pressure on both sides bridges this front. So basically, there are no issues seen for the next several days.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024VFR through this cycle.&&.MARINE...Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024N winds will remain over all waters but will rise as one transits from north to south and especially the farther away from shore.Overall sea heights will be higher today with the contribution of swell from Milton. We will keep caution statements up for the nearshore waters during some of the morning hours but move these to advisories as well before noon due mainly to overall seas. The addition of swell from the south and wind waves from the north is causing a confused sea which causes numerous peaks to form. So we should find seas of 4 to 6 feet in our nearshore waters today with even higher seas past the 20nm mark. Wind waves are contributing but not nearly as much as swell as winds should remain around 20kt or so. Winds and seas will slowly lower strarting Thu. Some swell could still be in the wave sets by late Thu but winds will be lowered to around 10kt and overall seas will subside as well through the remainder of the week.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 85 60 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 89 63 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 88 63 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 87 70 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 88 65 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 92 63 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ069-070-076-078.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ550-552-555-557. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ570-572-575- 577.MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ086.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ552-555-557. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
