JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 1:31 AM EDT768
FXUS63 KJKL 150531
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
131 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy to widespread frost is expected each night from Tuesday
night through Thursday night.
- Freezing temperatures could be rather widespread Tuesday night
and again Wednesday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with mainly just the
inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with a touch up to the PoPs per the CAMs. These adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2024
23Z sfc analysis shows chilly, but relatively weak, high pressure
in place over the region. Cyclonic flow around low pressure to
the northeast is continuing to bring an area of low clouds through
eastern Kentucky amid northwest winds generally of 5 mph or less.
temperatures are rather uniform across the JKL CWA thanks to this
regime - upper 40s to lower 50s. Meanwhile, dewpoints have fallen
into the mid 30s to lower 40s range. We are watching for some
light rain showers that remain on track, per the latest CAMs, to
sneak in from the northeast later in the evening and overnight.
Have updated the forecast mainly to fine tune the sky cover and
add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. Limited
concern for extremely isolated patches of frost and some river
valley fog in the southwest will be mitigated by the presence of
variable low and mid level clouds through the night. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2024
Current surface analysis is active across must of the eastern CONUS.
Last night's cold front has made it to the eastern seaboard with the
surface low moving offshore in New England. Cold high pressure is
building into the region; however, low-level moisture coupled with
upper-level troughing has favored the development of stratus deck
that's moved south from the Great Lakes. These clouds and upper-
level northwesterly flow have largely stifled high temperatures
today as highs have only climbed into the low to mid-50s. Areas on
on the Cumberland Plateau have climbed into the upper-50s to low-60s
as clouds haven't made it that far south.
Overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, upper-level troughing will
pivot into the region and favor surface development of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Shower chances will largely be confined to
areas north of the Hal Rogers Parkway with isolated thunderstorm
chances confined to areas north of I-64. With the low freezing
levels over the area, some of the deep showers or storms could bring
instances of graupel Tuesday afternoon. Also, due to the low
freezing levels, snow has snuck into the forecast grids but mainly
for Black Mountain. Showers will taper off and dissipate Tuesday
night with surface high pressure building back into the area.
Tuesday night into Wednesday will feature the coldest temperatures
of the season as lows are forecast to fall into the upper-20s to low-
30s. This will create widespread frost and bring an end to the
eastern Kentucky growing season.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by chances showers
and storms on Tuesday with a major cool-down expected that'll bring
about the end of the growing season and widespread frost.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2024
We will begin the period with good agreement on surface high
pressure progressing eastward into the Ohio Valley in tandem with
upper level ridging. This high pressure will waver back and forth
across the region through the period. The blocking pattern aloft
and surface high pressure will keep the weather very quiet through
the long term period. The biggest story will be the below normal
temperatures to begin the period, with highs on Wednesday
remaining in the low to mid 50s for most locations. Then as the
week rolls on the highs will creep back up closer to just above
normal, with highs in the lower 70s Saturday into Monday. The
other concern will be freezing temperatures and frost that will be
particularly widespread Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In
this case the NBM is trying to show around a 50 to 80 percent
chance for at least most valleys locations getting below freezing.
Given the typical splits seen in a case like this will lean
toward the tenth percentile of the NBM to better handle valley
lows. Either way frost will at least be a concern in the valleys
through Friday morning and lesser concern moving into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2024
Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the period. Scattered
showers will develop for Tuesday afternoon and evening and will
bring localized sub-VFR conditions. However, forecasting when/if
TAF sites get hit would be a losing game. A few of these showers
will probably grow into minimal thunderstorms late in the day and
early evening. Precipitation should die off late in the evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 1:31 AM EDT---------------
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