ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 10:01 AM EDT107
FXUS61 KILN 141401
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1001 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will settle in across the region
through mid week. This will bring a chance of showers to the
Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday along with much cooler
temperatures. Temperatures gradually warm by the end of week as
high pressure provides dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level short wave energy will rotate southeast across our
area this morning. Clouds associated with this will continue to
overspread the remainder of our area over the next couple of
hours. Meanwhile, scattered shower activity is dropping south
across our northern areas attm and this should also pivot
southeast across much of the area through early afternoon. Will
then linger some slight chance pops through the afternoon as
some very weak instability could lead to some additional
isolated showers.
With a fair amount of clouds and a colder airmass settling in
across the region, highs today will only be in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The influence of the second shortwave increases this evening
and through the overnight with height falls occurring area wide
through the entire short term period. A weak pressure trough
aids low-level convergence within a moistening air mass, keeping
showers maintained through the overnight into Tuesday morning.
Cold air advection allows temperatures to cool into the upper
30s and 40s, setting the stage for a chilly and dreary Tuesday.
With a northerly wind direction, cooling low-level temperatures,
and cloudy/showery conditions, the forecast once again rests
within the group of cooler solutions. Many locations have
temperatures only climbing into the upper 40s to perhaps the
lower 50s.
Rainfall wise, steep low-level lapse rates form during the
afternoon due to the cooler air mass moving in from the north at
850mb. The steep low-level lapse rates support more convective
elements during the late morning through the afternoon as the
shortwave descends through the Ohio Valley. More coverage is
expected compared to Monday, and deeper updrafts within the
cooler air will support some thunder in the stronger showers.
Therefore, added a mention of thunder south of I-70. Some soft
hail or graupel is also expected within these deeper updrafts.
The activity shifts to the Ohio River into the evening,
decreasing in coverage and intensity as it does so.
Most locations due not see a lot of rainfall out of this, but
some localized areas may see between a quarter to a half inch
plus. As of now, this looks to be associated with the better low
level convergence and slow movement overnight into Tuesday
morning. The convergence pivots along the US-35 corridor from
west-central Ohio to south-central Ohio.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For Tuesday night, the mean mid level trough axis will begin to
shift southeast. Although low level CAA will continue out of
the north, models suggest that a bit of a low level divergence
pattern will develop, such that skies should clear out for much
of the forecast area, with clouds and lake effect pcpn still
occurring downwind from Lake Michigan and Lake Erie. With winds
diminishing overnight, low temperatures should be able to drop
into the lower to mid 30s. This will set the stage for areas to
perhaps widespread frost to form, especially for locations with
the lightest wind. Will continue to mention the frost and/or
freeze threat in the HWO.
On Wednesday, under continued northerly flow, cool 850 mb
temperatures will linger which will make for a cool day. There
will be some cumulus development with the lingering cold pool.
Highs will range from the lower to mid 50s.
For Wednesday night into Thursday, a large scale area of
surface high pressure will build east right into the Ohio
Valley. With clear skies and light to calm winds, the stage will
be set for the coldest lows of the week to occur. With forecast
lows in the upper 20s to the lower 30s, widespread frost will
be in the forecast. Will continue to mention the frost and
freezing threat in the HWO. After a cold start, sunny skies and
some airmass modification/WAA will warm temperatures into the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.
For Thursday night into Friday, while a large scale mid level
ridge moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the large
scale surface high will move a little bit to the east. Clear
skies and light to calm winds will again bring the threat for
frost and/or freezing temperatures. Lows will range from the
upper 20s in some of the colder spots in our eastern zones to
the lower to mid 30s elsewhere. Again, under abundant sunshine
and continued WAA, temperatures will rebound into the mid and
upper 60s.
For the upcoming weekend, dry weather will continue as the mid
level ridge and surface ridge continue to extend into the Ohio
Valley. It will continue to warm with highs in the upper 60s to
the lower 70s and lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wind gusts are once again possible between 12Z-15Z Monday, but
will become less frequent and decrease into the early
afternoon. Wind direction will predominately be from the west to
northwest throughout the day.
After 12Z, a period of MVFR CIGs will move into the area from
the north, impacting local sites from 13Z-19Z. Eventually,
cloud heights increase to VFR levels. A few showers will be
possible, but coverage is currently low enough to keep mention
out of TAFs.
Shower coverage increases after 06Z Tuesday as low pressure
lingers over the area. MVFR VIS is possible within the shower
activity. MVFR CIGs return, first beginning at CMH/LCK/DAY/ILN
and moving southward toward CVG/LUK after 12Z Tuesday. Winds
will be northwest to north, increasing to above 10 knots after
12Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs possibly Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 10:01 AM EDT---------------
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