MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 11:48 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...971
FXUS64 KMOB 100448
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1148 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
VFR conditions next 24 hrs. Winds northeast generally 5 to 10
kts, except coastal areas at 10 to 15 kts and occasionally gusty.
/10
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
A few clouds streaming southwest over the central Gulf coast. No
bkn/ovc cigs expected with VFR conditions next 24hrs. A general
north to northeast wind 5 to 10 kts. /10
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Per the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center,
Hurricane Milton which is currently located about 130 miles west
of Ft. Myers, Florida will make landfall along the west-central
coast of Florida tonight and move off the east coast of Florida
and into the Atlantic on Thursday. The forecast area meanwhile
remains in a dry, deep layer northeasterly flow and have continued
with a dry forecast through the period. Lows tonight range from
the mid 50s well inland to the lower/mid 60s near the coast, then
Thursday night will be a bit cooler and range from the lower 50s
inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Highs on Thursday will be in
the lower to mid 80s. A High Risk of rip currents continues
through Thursday, then a moderate risk follows for Thursday night.
Have made adjustments based on the latest data for the High Surf
Advisory which begins at 10 pm this evening, then ends at 1 pm
Thursday due to surf heights subsiding through the afternoon. /29
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Per the latest track from the National Hurricane Center, Milton is
expected to move well off into the western Atlantic and weaken
through Monday. Dry conditions are expected to continue over the
forecast area meanwhile, and persist into Wednesday as well as
deep layer moisture remains limited. A cold front will approach
the area from the north on Sunday, then moves through Sunday night
into Monday morning and ushers progressively cooler air into the
region. Highs on Friday range mostly from the upper 70s to lower
80s, then a warming trend follows through Sunday when highs will
be in the mid to upper 80s. Similar highs follow for Monday, then
cooler air in the wake of the cold front limit highs Tuesday to
mostly in the 70s, then for Wednesday highs range from the upper
60s well inland to the lower 70s elsewhere. Lows Friday night
range from the upper 40s well inland to the upper 50s at the coast
then moderate through Sunday night to range from the upper 50s
inland to the mid 60s at the coast. With the cooler air brought
into the area by the cold front, by Tuesday night lows range from
the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. /29
MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Major Hurricane Milton is anticipated to make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida tonight, then cross the Florida
peninsula and move off the east coast of Florida and over the
western Atlantic on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the near shore waters until 1 pm Thursday and until 1
am Friday for the 20-60 nm portion, although it's possible that
the 20-60 nm portion may need to be extended a bit later in the
night to allow for winds to sufficiently subside. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 62 86 56 83 54 83 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 65 85 61 81 57 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 64 84 62 80 59 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 57 85 51 81 48 82 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 57 84 53 82 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 57 82 51 79 49 80 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 57 85 51 81 47 81 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 11:48 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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