ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 7:01 AM EDT208
FXUS61 KILN 131101
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
701 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move east across the southern Great
Lakes today, with its trailing cold front moving southeast
across the region. An upper level trough will then dig southward
into the eastern U.S. for the first part of the workweek,
bringing unsettled weather and much colder temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure over northwest Indiana will move east to northwest
Ohio by sunrise. An associated low level jet out ahead of the
low and its trailing cold front will focus its low level
convergence at its nose, which will be mainly north of the
region. Thus, only a stray shower or storm may brush the far
north, otherwise dry conditions are expected.
For today, the low will move east across northern Ohio then
into Pennsylvania. The lack of deep moisture along and ahead of
the front, as well as sufficient low level convergence, should
allow the front to pass through dry as it moves southeast across
the area. A tightening pressure gradient, along with diurnal
mixing and CAA developing behind the front will make for a
breezy to locally wind day. Sustained winds will be in the 20 to
25 mph with gusts between 30 and 35 mph. It will still get
quite warm in our eastern/southern zones before the front passes
by. Highs will range from near 70 in our far northwest, to the
mid 70s to lower 80s generally along and southeast of I-71.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
During the early evening behind the cold front, we may see a
brief respite in the gustiness. Then, a secondary cold
front/trough is expected to push southeast across the ares from
mid evening into the early morning hours of Monday. This
boundary will bring another round of CAA. In addition, the
pressure gradient will tighten once again. And with steep low
level lapse rates, wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range will be
possible as stronger winds aloft are brought down to the surface
via momentum transfer. In terms of rain chances, not much is
expected with the front itself, except across the far northern
zones where mid level s/wv energy may aid in a few showers. As
we head toward the morning hours, the gustiness should diminish
some. It will be much colder with lows bottoming out in the mid
and upper 40s.
On Monday, a large scale mid level trough is expected to carve
itself out over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. In the
CAA pattern across the warmer waters of the Great Lakes,
considerable stratocumulus clouds will develop. In addition,
models indicate that a surface trough will push into the
northern zones during the day. This may bring enough forcing
with the shallow instability to bring a chance of showers there.
Otherwise, it will generally be mostly cloudy. Some winds may
gust up to 25 mph, generally into the early afternoon hours.
Highs will be sharply colder (and below normal) compared to this
past weekend. Highs will range from 55 north to 60 south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A powerful shortwave works through the base of the broader
longwave trough Monday night, supplying a reinforced chance of
showery conditions. The shortwave continues southward Tuesday,
focusing the chance of showers south of I-70. Cloud cover,
northerly winds, and light precipitation combine to significant
limit heating Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures struggle to climb
with most locations in the 50s. Can't rule out a few cooler
spots remaining in the upper 40s. Some low probabilities
(10-30%) for sub-50 degree high temperatures are present in the
greater Columbus area Tuesday and Wednesday.
Drier air works into the region Tuesday night with high
pressure building in from the west. Some lingering cloud cover
and elevated winds do add some uncertainty to the frost
potential Wednesday morning, but there will likely be the need
for an advisory across the area as confidence grows. Confidence
is much higher the following night with high pressure dominating
the region. The NBM, and current forecast sit within the cooler
side of the guidance so no major changes were made to the
forecast. Efficient cooling justifies this cooler approach, and
a freeze watch may be needed at some point. NBM probability for
temperatures below 32 degrees currently sits at 40-60% for the
eastern half (east of I-75) of the forecast area.
A deep ridge builds over the region Thursday and persists into
the first part of the weekend. With the high pressure to the
east, conditions promote abundant sunshine and a warming trend
back to normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLWS will end after 14Z once diurnal mixing commences.
For today, low pressure will move east across northern Ohio
into Pennsylvania. A trailing cold front from the low will push
east/southeast through our area. With a continued tight pressure
gradient and with diurnal mixing, sustained winds will increase
between 15 and 20 knots with gusts between 25 and 30 knots.
Winds will veer to the west and northwest once the front passes
by. VFR conditions will continue as the lack of deep moisture
and forcing will allow the cold front to pass through dry. Some
FEW-SCT cumulus clouds will develop along and behind the cold
front in the developing CAA pattern.
For tonight, a large scale mid level trough will begin to carve
itself out across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. An
embedded mid level disturbances may bring a chance of showers
north of the terminals. Models also suggest that a trough axis
and an additional CAA push will bring another period of gusty
winds from the northwest. These gusts could be between 25 and 30
knots. The stronger gusts should diminish some by 12Z. Also in
the CAA pattern, (colder air moving across the warmer waters of
the Great Lakes) MVFR stratocumulus clouds will develop. These
will move in from the north overnight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings expected into Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 7:01 AM EDT---------------
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