BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 7:23 AM EDT629
FXUS61 KBOX 091123
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
723 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonable conditions will continue today. A cold front
may bring a few brief showers to northern MA this evening,
otherwise the front will be followed by gusty NW winds and
cooler than normal temperatures for Thursday. Temperatures
moderate Friday, and especially Saturday, when highs may reach
into the 70s. Low pressure approaching from the Gt Lakes will
bring an increasing risk of rain with cooler temperatures
Sunday into Sunday night. Showers may linger into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM Update:
The last batch of weak showers can be seen on radar moving
through the Cape Islands early this morning. This is in line
with the current forecast, so no changes needed.
Previous Discussion:
Fairly robust mid level shortwave moving into SNE early this morning
with a few showers developing ahead of it across CT. CAMs are
showing some intensification of the showers across SE MA and Cape/
Islands during the pre-dawn hours likely enhanced by the low level
convergence along the surface boundary and area of enhanced moisture
near SE New Eng coast. These showers will be exiting the outer Cape
and Nantucket just after daybreak.
Weak subsidence and drying behind this shortwave will result in lots
of sunshine this morning which will become mixed with diurnal CU
this afternoon, especially interior. A second and stronger shortwave
dropping south from the Gt Lakes will move into northern NY late
today. Showers associated with this feature will be confined to
northern NY and northern New Eng, but it is possible a few showers
could spill into western MA late in the day. Slight cooling noted in
the low levels so it should be a few degrees cooler today with highs
low-mid 60s, with upper 50s higher terrain and modest west
breezes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight...
The stronger shortwave moves south into SNE this evening with good
cooling aloft, especially across northern MA where a few showers are
possible. Some of these showers may clip the outer Cape overnight
with the upper trough passage. Otherwise, looking at mainly
conditions. The passage of the upper trough and cold front will be
accompanied by brief gusty NW winds which will usher in a cooler
airmass as 850 mb temps drop to 0 to -2C by 12z Thu. Lows will fall
into the upper 30s to low-mid 40s, but milder Cape/Islands.
Thursday...
The upper tough axis and shortwave moves to the east as high pres
pres builds over the Gt Lakes. The column is dry and mostly sunny
skies expected, although diurnal CU will develop under the residual
cold pool aloft. 850 mb temps will remain between 0 and -2C so highs
will be several degrees below normal, generally 55-60, but cooler
higher terrain. The cooler temps will be accompanied by somewhat
gusty NW winds 15-25 mph at times.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Temperatures normal to slightly above normal Fri/Sat with a trend
toward slightly below normal temperatures by early next week
* Dry weather pattern likely prevails through much of the weekend
with next chance to precipitation potentially arriving by late
Sunday.
Details:
Thursday Night and Friday:
The upper level ridge pattern and NW flow aloft gradually
transitions to more a more zonal pattern. Surface high pressure
persists with the main surface high to the south and west of the
region. This will support dry conditions with minimal cloud cover
overnight. Although the main portion of the cold pool will be lifted
north of the region, this should still provide favorable conditions
for a chilly night/early AM. Optimal radiational cooling and cooler
airmass aloft will support temperatures dropping into the mid to
upper 30s for a good portion of southern New England. Coastal areas
and urban centers trend slightly warmer in the low to mid 40s. With
light NW winds, we'll have to watch the potential for frost
development. Model soundings aren't highlighting considerably low
dewpoint depressions which would limit frost potential, but it
warrants some monitoring for those who have sensitive plants/crops.
With the cooler air aloft pushed out, Friday will trend warmer with
highs rising back into low/mid 60s.
Friday Night - early next week:
The weekend will feature zonal flow aloft with the passage of a few
shortwave troughs embedded in the flow. There are still
differences in timing/strength of the waves. As far as our next
shot at rain, ensemble guidance shows a general consensus on
late Sun-Mon timeframe. Temperatures trend warm for Saturday
with highs slightly above normal in the upper 60s/low 70s.
Otherwise, Sunday through early next week stay around to
slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z Update:
Today and Tonight...High Confidence
A few residual showers across Cape/Islands early this morning.
VFR conditions today with W/WNW winds 10-15 kts. BKN cigs
develop in the evening, but should remain VFR. Weak cold front
moves through overnight bringing elevated NW winds with gusts up
to 25 kts possible.
Thursday...High confidence
NW winds prevail Thursday with gusts up to 20 kts. SCT cu
developing Thu. Low risk for low end VFR or MVFR cigs over the
outer Cape Thu morning.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Thursday: High confidence.
Still dealing with 5-6 ft seas over the eastern MA waters but seas
are subsiding and will drop below SCA this morning. W winds 10-20 kt
today, then a period of 20-25 kt NW gusts possible late tonight into
Thu behind the cold front. May eventually need to consider a SCA for
late tonight into Thu.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-
254.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Mensch
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...KJC/Mensch
MARINE...KJC/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 7:23 AM EDT----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
