PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 6:47 PM CDT851
FXUS63 KPAH 102347
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
647 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunny and dry conditions are expected through next week.
- Much above normal temperatures will continue through the
weekend.
- A cool down is forecast for next week. The first frost of the
season for much of the region is possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Dry surface high pressure will lead to warm days and coolish
nights through Friday night. Continued to go with a larger
diurnal range than the NBM or guidance consensus would indicate
through Friday night. Even for this afternoon there is no
guidance other than the 90th percentile of the NBM that has a
clue at how warm it is. Some middle 80 readings are possible
Friday afternoon.
The surface high will begin to relinquish control over the Quad
State Saturday, as we pick up a decent southwest wind throughout
the region. This should help dewpoints keep from mixing down as
much over the weekend and should also help temperatures to climb
a bit higher than Friday. Highs in the middle 80s will be common
on Saturday. The persistent south winds will make for a very
mild night Saturday night.
High temperatures Sunday will be a difficult call given
uncertainties in the timing of the cold front and in how fast
the cold air will overspread the region behind it. Some middle
80s are possible in the south and the I-64 corridor may not
reach 80. Some of the guidance continues to indicate some light
QPF at times near and just behind the front Sunday. The NBM
remains dry for now, but we will keep an eye on the possibility
of some light showers Sunday.
Much cooler air will impact the Quad State for all of next week.
the coolest highs still are expected Tuesday with readings
around 60 in most places. The coldest night will be Tuesday
night. The NBM has trended lower more into the middle 30s for
lows, but it also has trended lower with dewpoints now forecast
to drop into the lower 30s. Given this trend it is becoming
more likely that at least portions of the Quad State, mainly
north, will see some frost early Wednesday.
Temperatures will then slowly moderate through the end of the
week, but will remain several degrees below normal. Enjoy the
pleasantly cool fall weather!
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Surface high pressure is expected to bring mostly VFR
conditions. MVFR/IFR restrictions from fog is possible at CGI
and MVN again, similar to earlier this morning. Light and
variable winds expected overnight with 5-10 kts expected on
Friday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 6:47 PM CDT---------------
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