NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 9, 4:00 AM CDT508
WTNT44 KNHC 090855
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024
Milton has been maintaining its strength as a catastrophic category
5 hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite and
Doppler radar images indicate that the major hurricane has a
compact, symmetric, and very powerful inner core. Based on
aircraft data, the minimum pressure has dropped to 907 mb and the
maximum sustained winds remain near 140 kt. The wind field of
Milton is gradually expanding, and the wind radii have been adjusted
based on a combination of the Hurricane Hunter data and ASCAT
passes. There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across
portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of
Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day.
Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid-
to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located
over the Greater Antilles. This motion should generally continue
until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur
late tonight or early Thursday morning. After the hurricane reaches
the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another
trough approaches the system from the west. Milton should exit
Florida and move over the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon and
accelerate eastward after that. The NHC track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles.
The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin
to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some
weakening. However, there is high confidence that Milton will
remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and
maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state. The
cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on
Friday and gradually weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.
Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while
it moves across Florida. Additionally, a large region of tropical
storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back
side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal
boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well
outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and
residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local
emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations
should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one
of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.
Key Messages:
1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and
you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local
officials.
2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.
3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 85.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Roberts
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 9, 4:00 AM CDT---------------
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