JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 11:02 PM EDT549
FXUS63 KJKL 120302
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1102 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly rain free weather is expected through Wednesday with only
a 20-50% chance of showers Sun afternoon into Sun night.
- Patchy frost is possible tonight to early Sat morning, mainly
in the sheltered hollows away from larger bodies of water.
- Patchy to widespread frost is forecast each night from Mon night
through early Thu.
- A freeze is possible in some spots Mon night to early Tue, with
a more widespread freeze possible Tue night to early Wed and Wed
night to early Thu.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
Once again, only temperatures were updated by blending late
evening obs into the forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 850 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
Have made adjustments to blend observed evening temperatures into
the forecast. Otherwise, no changes were made to the near term
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
Another fabulous mid-October afternoon is in underway over the
Eastern Kentucky Coalfields. After a chilly morning, with a touch
of frost or fog for some, bright glorious sunshine has warmed
temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s at the lower
elevations and into the lower and mid 60s over the higher
ridgetops and mountains. An ~1023 mb surface high is centered over
eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee at 3 PM EDT, while broad
upper level ridging extends from the High Plains eastward into the
Ohio/Tennessee valleys. A potent trough is traversing from
central to eastern Canada and that system has dragged a cold front
to over the Great Lakes and southwest across the Central Plains.
Further upstream, a potent shortwave trough/vort maxes are passing
through northwestern Canada.
The surface high pressure will gradually subside to our south
tonight and Saturday. This will allow for another night of strong
radiational cooling, especially east of the Escarpment. Low-level
flow turning back to the west and southwest on the back side of the
high will begin pulling a warmer and moister air mass across our
region late tonight and especially Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough will develop and dig as it dives southeast from the
Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest by early Sunday morning.
Ahead of this trough, cyclogenesis will ensue along the
aforementioned cold front near the Missouri/Iowa border late
Saturday night. A sharpening surface pressure gradient between the
departing high to our southeast and the low pressure wave/cold
front to our northwest should keep the boundary layer more mixed
Saturday night.
In sensible terms, look for sunny skies late this afternoon to
yield to clear skies overnight. Fog formation is again favored in
the typical main stem river/larger tributary valleys.
Temperatures around 70 late this afternoon are expected to drop
off sharply, especially in valleys. Forecast lows range from the
upper 30s to mid 40s in most valley locations. However, a few mid
30s cannot be ruled out in chilliest hollows east of the
Escarpment where patches of frost are possible. In the thermal
belt, the return of weak WAA should keep temperatures in the mid
40s to near 50. Saturday morning brings the return of abundant
sunshine, though some mid and high clouds are expected to stream
in late day. Temperatures should be several degrees warmer than
today, topping out in the middle to upper 70s across most of the
area. Dew points are expected to slowly moderate through the 40s
during the day. A milder night is in store for Saturday night as
milder, moister air continues to move in aloft and a tightening
pressure gradient disturbs the boundary layer through the night.
Expect lows ranging from the upper 40s in deep southeastern
valleys (where a greater degree of decoupling is likely) to the
upper 50s on thermal belt slopes/ridgetops.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
The large scale flow pattern aloft in the extended will start off
with a vigorous trough moving quickly across the Great Lakes and
Upper Ohio Valley regions Sunday and Sunday night. The GFS has this
system moving through the region a bit more slowly than the GFS
Ensemble, which has the trough moving through the southern Great
Lakes at 12Z Sunday and out of the central Plains, while the former
has the trough moving through there later in the day. The NBM seems
to more closely mirroring the GFS solutions. That being said, the
new forecast will have this trough diving southward out of the Great
Lakes and through portions of the Ohio Valley and eastern Kentucky
Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening. With the trough
looking a bit stronger, and with a bit of instability now showing up
in the forecast soundings, a slight chance of thunder has been
introduced to the forecast, with a few storms perhaps accompanying
scattered showers as the front/trough move through late Sunday into
Sunday evening. Another much weaker trough is forecast to move
through the region on Tuesday, and could bring a few rain showers to
our eastern counties as it moves through. Aside from that, we should
see mainly clear to mostly clear skies around the area and dry and
chilly conditions.
After a very warm day on Sunday, with highs in the lower 80s
expected, a significant pattern change will be in store for the
region after the cold front moves through the area Sunday
evening. A strong ridge of Canadian high pressure will move into
the region Sunday night and Monday, and will usher in the coldest
air mass of the season so far to begin the new work week. The
ridge will provide dry conditions, light winds, clear skies, and
light winds, all of which will be conducive to well-defined ridge
valley temperatures splits, valley fog, and frost. We may see
some valley fog late Monday night into Tuesday morning, as areas
near bodies of water may be supportive of fog. At this point, it
appears that nightly lows Monday night through Wednesday night
will fall into the 30s around the area. Our most sheltered and
deepest valleys, and hollers away from bodies of water, could see
readings falling into the lower 30s at times, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday nights when radiational cooling should be maximized.
The frost could become widespread at times, and affect areas
outside of valleys as well, so we will be watching this situation
closely. The frost will constitute the primary weather hazard we
see in the forecast, with a killing freeze perhaps possible as
well.
Daily highs through the week will run well below normal, with max
readings in the 50s and 60s Monday through Thursday. The coolest
days will likely be Tuesday and Wednesday, when the mercury may
not rise out of the 50s. It will feel more like late fall most of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
Fog will bring IFR or worse conditions to some of the deeper
valleys overnight and early Saturday, but it is not expected to
affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions and winds less than
10 kts are forecast.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 11:02 PM EDT---------------
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