NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 4:00 PM CDT199
WTNT44 KNHC 072058
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
Satellite images indicate that Milton is quite a powerful hurricane.
The small eye has become even more distinct than earlier today, and
radar data from Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with a very
strong eyewall presentation. On the last fix before the plane
departed a few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter crew
reported that the pressure had fallen to 911 mb, which is 77 mb
lower than yesterday at the same time, with other data to support
150 kt. Since the satellite imagery continues to show
intensification, the initial wind speed is set to 155 kt, and a pair
of Hurricane Hunters should be in the area this evening for more
information.
The hurricane is moving eastward at about 9 kt. Milton should move
close to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early
Tuesday ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. This feature should then cause Milton to move
east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed
later on Tuesday and Wednesday. Little change was made to the
previous forecast, with the latest model guidance very close to the
previous forecast cycle, and this forecast remains close to a
consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models.
Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the
model trackers which appear to be too far south.
Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and
very warm waters providing a conducive environment. However, radar
data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall
replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer
eyewall. The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually
weaken on Tuesday but grow larger. On Wednesday, Milton is expected
to encounter a less favorable environment with strong shear and dry
air entrainment, with further weakening forecast. Regardless, the
system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall
in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well
inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from
their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the
potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record
for west-central Florida.
Key Messages:
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.
2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an
extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas
should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate
immediately if told to do so.
3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along
portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is
in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses
the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion
of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and
property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night
since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this
area early Wednesday.
4. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 4:00 PM CDT---------------
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