NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 7:00 PM AST447
WTNT43 KNHC 071445
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024
Leslie appears slightly less organized based on infrared and visible
satellite imagery. However, an SSMIS microwave pass from a few
hours ago indicated that there was still a feature resembling an eye
on the 91-GHz imagery. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB are T-4.5/77 kt. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range
from 65 to 84 kt. The initial intensity is nudged down slightly to
75 kt, based on the degraded satellite presentation noted on
conventional satellite imagery.
Leslie is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt. Leslie is expected to
move around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the
northeast of the cyclone and turn gradually north-northwestward to
northward toward the end of the week. The NHC track forecast was
nudged only slightly to the right of the previous official forecast
during the first 72 h of the forecast and is close to the various
track consensus aids.
Leslie will remain over warm ocean water through the 5-day forecast
period, and it will remain in an environment of relatively low
vertical wind shear for another 48 h. However, dry air in the
lower and middle troposphere should prevent any strengthening. In
fact, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows weakening, and the
NHC forecast follows suit. Due to Leslie's small size, its core
seems to be vulnerable to the dry air, despite the low shear. Only
minor changes are made to the official intensity forecast, which
lies near the lower end of the intensity guidance. Beyond 48 h,
Leslie is forecast to run into strong northerly wind shear as the
cyclone interacts with an upper-level trough. This shear will
cause continued weakening. Simulated satellite imagery is showing
Leslie losing its convection beyond day 4, and the NHC forecast
shows the tropical cyclone becoming post-tropical in 4 to 5 days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 16.4N 41.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.5N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.0N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 20.5N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 21.6N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 22.4N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 23.1N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.7N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 7:00 PM AST---------------
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