IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 5:15 AM EDT115
FXUS63 KIND 090915
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
515 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures through Saturday
- Coldest air of the Fall arrives early next week with frost
possible on a few mornings
- Other than a few isolated showers Saturday night into Sunday, dry
weather will persist
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Benign Autumn weather continues for Central Indiana as high pressure
remains the dominant weather influence through the week.
Latest satellite and observations show surface high pressure
centered over St. Louis with clear skies and winds ranging from calm
to 5 mph. Optimal conditions for radiational cooling have resulted
in temperatures plummeting 20-25 degrees into the 40s to low 50s
across the region. Coldest spots are located in low lying, wind
sheltered areas and in the Wabash River Valley where temperatures
could fall into the upper 30s by sunrise. Frost is not expected.
High pressure remains over the region today with the weather
conditions forecast to be nearly a carbon copy of yesterday. Ample
sunshine and further drying of the surface will result in warmer
highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. Very light winds through the
column will likely limit the over fire weather threat; however very
dry conditions will still persist with afternoon RH values
potentially dropping near critical fire weather thresholds in the
lower 20 percent range.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Thursday and Friday...
Quiet weather will continue to end the work week with high pressure
in control. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday thanks
to a back door cold front that will have dissipated by early in the
day. The eastern part of the area will see the coolest readings, but
even these will still be in the lower 70s.
On Friday, the upper ridge to the west will nose in and allow warmer
temperatures again, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Saturday and Sunday...
As some initial upper energy moves through the northwest flow aloft
on Saturday, a cold front will sink into northern Indiana Saturday
night. The best upper support remains well north of the area, and
moisture is quite limited. Thus, only expect some isolated showers
with it in the northern half of the forecast area. Southwest winds
ahead of the front will keep warm air in place Saturday, with highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s expected.
An upper level low will develop across southern Canada on Sunday and
dig a trough across the area. This will help a surface low move
through the Great Lakes, dragging the front through the area and
ushering in cooler air. However, moisture still remains very
limited. Will keep an isolated shower mention across parts of the
north. Cooler air moving in will keep highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.
Monday and beyond...
A large upper trough will dig across the eastern USA early next
week. This will usher in much colder air to central Indiana. Highs
will only be in the 50s with lows in the 30s. Frost will be on the
table and will likely come down to specifics of sky cover and winds.
Viewing ensemble clusters via DESI show high uncertainty on how the
upper flow will specifically end up, as models have differing ideas
on when/where/if an upper low will form within the large upper
trough. This will have an impact on the sky cover and any chance for
light precipitation. Thus, confidence is low on the specifics that
would lead to frost formation.
Confidence is higher in the cold temperatures themselves as the
ensemble spread is much lower with this parameter.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 515 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions and clear skies are expected throughout the period.
Winds will be light and variable tonight and into tomorrow morning
but have included the predominate NW/W direction in the TAFs. Winds
will pick back up slightly for midday to afternoon tomorrow of 4-7
kts with a NW direction.
Very slight chance of patchy fog developing in wind sheltered, low
lying areas early this morning. Not putting this in the TAF as
confidence is low and the threat should be very isolated.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 5:15 AM EDT---------------
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