ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 9:40 AM EDT176
FXUS61 KILN 091340
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
940 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in control of the
weather through the end of the week. A few showers will be
possible on Sunday into early next week as a cold front moves
through the region. Much cooler air is expected to settle into
the region early next week, with much below normal temperatures
possible during this stretch.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to another sunny and
pleasant day across the region. Afternoon highs will be in the
low to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Reinforcing high pressure will settle into the ern Great Lakes
tonight into the day Thursday, causing LL flow to become
northeasterly and allow for some slightly cooler air to advect
in from the NE. This will result in high temps Thursday being
perhaps 2-3 degrees cooler than will be the case today, but even
so, more sunshine is in the forecast for the short term period.
For tonight, temps should range from the lower 40s in central
OH to the upper 40s in SE IN and N KY under clear skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control of a dry forecast until a cold
front lays out over northern Ohio on Saturday, followed by a low
pressure center. This low will develop over IL and track east
through the southern Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. Some
rain may accompany this low pressure system, generally over the
northern half of the CWA and expected to be light in nature.
In the wake of the low, northerly winds will pull moisture off of
Lakes Michigan and Erie to bring some shower activity close to
northern sections of the CWA. A significant upper low is noted
during this time, but tropical influences in the near term are
likely polluting model mass fields at this time of the forecast.
However it works, after a cool start Thursday night, mild
temperatures will prevail through Saturday night, and then cool off
significantly in the wake of the surface low and associated cold
front. Highs from Monday onwards should be in the 50s, with lows in
the mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
River valley BR/FG could bring some VSBY reductions to KLUK in
the several hours around daybreak Thursday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail area-wide through the entirety of the
TAF period, with clear skies expected. Light/calm winds this
morning will be out of the NW around 5-10kts this afternoon
before going more out of the NE after 00z and subsiding to less
than 5kts once again. Winds should go more easterly by 12z
Thursday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 9:40 AM EDT---------------
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