NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 4:00 AM CDT787
WTNT44 KNHC 070858
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
Milton continues to produce a central dense overcast with
cloud tops colder than -80C, and since the last advisory a small
ragged eye has been present. Satellite intensity estimates have
increased to the 80-100 kt range, and based on this the initial
intensity is raised to 85 kt.
The center has nudged a little southward over the past several
hours, and the initial motion is now 105/7 kt. Milton is moving
within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the
southwest side of a low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The global models suggest the mid-level trough and surface
low should move eastward into the Atlantic during the next 48 h,
with a second mid- to upper-level trough digging into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Milton to
move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed.
The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will
cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant
differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET
is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much
farther north, and the Canadian being the slowest and keeping the
storm offshore more than 24 h longer than the other models. The
new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west
coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the
multimodel consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track. After landfall, Milton should turn more
eastward as it becomes extratropical.
For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of
moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, steady to
rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast
continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane.
After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable
environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore,
some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the
Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a
large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with
life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. After
landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition,
which should be complete by 96 h.
Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A dangerous storm surge with
damaging waves is also likely along portions of the coast of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 22.1N 92.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 7, 4:00 AM CDT---------------
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