LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 11:48 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...039
FXUS64 KLIX 070448
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Upper trough over eastern Canada this afternoon with ridging near
the Four Corners area. Strengthening Hurricane Milton was over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico. Frontal boundaries were off the
Louisiana coast, and well to our northwest along the Arkansas-
Missouri border. Northeasterly winds were common across the area,
with enough moisture to produce scattered to broken cloud cover
across mainly the eastern half of the area. Temperatures ranged
from the mid 80s to lower 90s at 3 PM CDT with dew points mainly
in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dew points were lower just to our
north and west, in the lower 60s. There may be a few stray small
showers in eastern portions of the area as noted on KHDC radar,
but not many people will see any rain.
The 18z LIX special sounding in support of Hurricane Milton
continued to show precipitable water values around 1.5 inches, but
soundings at BMX, JAN and LCH were all much closer to 1 inch.
Forecast soundings and water vapor imagery indicate that areas
west of Interstate 55 are much closer to those 1 inch levels. Even
the GFS forecast soundings have eastern portions of the area
falling to that 1 inch range overnight tonight and remain there
through Monday night.
Expect lots of sunshine on Monday with any significant
precipitation remaining well offshore. Dew points should fall into
the 60s area-wide tomorrow, which, combined with almost no clouds,
should allow temperatures to climb into the lower 90s across the
area. Record highs tomorrow are in the 92 to 94 range at our
climate sites and we'll be pretty close to those readings.
Overnight lows tonight will range from mid 60s to mid 70s, but
could be as much as 5-10 degrees cooler by Tuesday morning...much
closer to normal for October.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Milton will be heading toward Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday as
potentially a major hurricane. The only local impacts will be the
potential for minor coastal flooding and marine issues. It will be
breezy locally with northeast to north winds, but those winds will
also be pulling drier air into the area. Tuesday and Wednesday
could see dewpoints falling into the 50s across a good portion of
the area, and even possibly the upper 40s across southwest
Mississippi.
Once Milton gets out of the way, upper flow will be northwesterly
into the weekend with eventually weak upper troughing along the
northern Gulf Coast. No indications of any significant
precipitation occurring across the area through next weekend. The
dry air in place should lead to diurnal temperature ranges as
great as 30 degrees away from marine influences. Overnight lows in
the 50s would be the coolest since late April for many sites.
High temperatures will remain in the 80s though, perhaps
approaching 90. Normal highs during the extended period should be
in the lower 80s, so we'll be quite a few degrees above that. The
GFS and ECMWF numbers are actually in relatively good agreement,
so didn't see much reason to make adjustments to the NBM numbers.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024
VFR conditions are expected for all terminals with the exception
of some slightly reduced visibilities possible at MCB early this
morning before sunrise. Otherwise winds will be
northerly/northwesterly at 10-15 knots in the afternoon. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Milton's main concerns will be to the marine community. However,
the greatest impacts will be well to the south of our waters. The
current Small Craft Advisory in place through Monday night will
likely need to be extended in later forecast packages, with
conditions likely not improving much until perhaps Wednesday
night or Thursday. There will be potential for at least a few
wind gusts to gale force (35 knots) in the eastern outer waters
Monday night into at least Wednesday, and we can't rule out a
need for a Gale Watch in later forecasts, but that will be
dependent on the exact track of Milton and how quickly the wind
field expands.
Similar to the Small Craft Advisory, the Coastal Flood Advisory
will likely need to be extended beyond the current expiration of
Tuesday morning. Still looks like potential for 1 to 2 feet above
ground level at high tide on east facing shorelines.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 90 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 71 94 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 69 91 63 86 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 73 89 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 69 90 65 86 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 69 93 65 90 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ069-070-076-
078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ086.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 11:48 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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