ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 8:54 PM EDT146
FXUS61 KILN 080054
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
854 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and abundant sunshine are on tap through the
the workweek, with slightly below normal temperatures. A small
chance of rain may return this weekend, but a drier than normal
pattern is expected through at least the middle of the month.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Evening update...
No major changes to the near term forecast. Upper air
observation from the evening confirmed a deep layer of dry air
in the low to mid levels of the troposphere, allowing for
efficient cooling overnight into Tuesday morning.
Previous discussion...
Northwest mid level flow with surface high pressure nosing into
the area overnight. Dry airmass with the few fair weather
cumulus clouds that have developed giving way to clear skies
early this evening. Expect mainly clear skies to prevail
overnight only a few thin high level clouds.
Good radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight as
winds become light with mainly clear skies. This setup will
allow for temps to dip to lows from the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Can not rule out some very patchy frost in low-lying, sheltered,
rural areas, but most locations will stay warm enough that frost
potential looks to be low for the majority of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building into
the area Tuesday. In dry airmass expect to see abundant sunshine
with temperatures topping out from the upper 60s to the lower
70s.
High pressure will continue to offer dry weather and slightly
below normal temperatures Tuesday night. Low temperatures to
range from 40 to 45.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and
Wednesday night leading to clear conditions and near average
temperatures. The surface high drifts east of the area Thursday
through Saturday which will allow southerly flow develop across the
region. Moderating temperatures accompany the southerly winds while
mostly clear conditions persist.
There is a signal for a low pressure system developing on Sunday
which may bring the next cold front through the region by next week.
A chance of rain exists ahead of the front on Sunday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No major changes from the previous forecast. Prevailing VFR
conditions expected with the exception of valley fog at KLUK.
Can't rule out a few mid or upper level clouds, but SKC will
predominate.
Winds remain less than 10 knots and from the north.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...McGinnis/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 8:54 PM EDT---------------
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