PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 7:09 AM EDT412
FXUS61 KPBZ 081109
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
709 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected
through much of the work week under the influence of high
pressure. There is potential for the fall's first widespread
frost later this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest observations show dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s
across the region, so frost development is not a major concern
this morning. River valley fog will diminish mid-morning with
increased mixing. Surface high pressure building in from the
west along with mid- level troughing will result in continued
dry weather and near to just below- normal temperatures with
relatively light wind today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
- Frost potential in some areas Thursday and Friday mornings.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The main thing to watch later this week is the potential for
frost Thursday morning and especially Friday morning, when
high pressure centers directly over the Upper Ohio Valley.
Clear sky, calm wind, and a dry airmass will support temperature
drops into the 30s areawide, with some 20s possible in the
deeper sheltered valleys. Probabilities of temperatures 37 or
lower are in the 50-80% range away from rivers/metro areas for
Thursday morning, and 80 to 100% in similar areas for Friday
morning. Thus, expect frost/freeze headlines later this week.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues through at least through Saturday;
light rain possible for Sunday and Monday.
- Warmer temperatures Friday/Saturday may be followed by another
cooldown early next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
By Friday, 500mb heights will likely be on the rise behind the
departing trough, while surface high pressure drifts south towards
the Tennessee Valley. There is decent ensemble agreement for this,
although there is a bit of uncertainty regarding how much of a
height rise can be expected. While this lends to a bit of a range of
possible temperatures, it does appear that continued dry weather and
a warming trend can be expected for Friday and Saturday, eventually
above climatology.
Thereafter, model spread starts to increase regarding the strength
and timing of the next notable shortwave trough. Some scenarios are
quicker and more shallow with the trough, leading to less rain
potential and warmer temperatures than the slower, deeper outcomes.
Regardless, this period will represent the next chance for rain,
which would generally expected to be light given the northern
origins of the disturbance. Temperatures may then sink below normal
by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After the morning river valley fog dissipates by 12Z to 13Z, VFR
is expected through the TAF period. Cool air aloft and a broad
upper trough should result in scattered diurnal cumulus/stratocu
developing by mid morning.
A crossing surface trough will maintain scattered to
occasionally broken stratocu across the region tonight. The most
likely airports to see MVFR cigs or possibly lower will be FKL
and DUJ. Winds are expected to be light out of the west.
.Outlook...
A crossing cold front could result in VFR cigs at FKL and DUJ
Wednesday. Patchy river valley fog is also possible each
morning. Otherwise, VFR is expected through Saturday under
building high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...CL/88
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...WM/Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 7:09 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
