LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 3:13 AM EDT016
FXUS63 KLMK 080713
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
313 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather and seasonable temperatures for most of the week.
* Cool nights with very patchy frost possible Friday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
NW flow aloft between a low over James Bay and a ridge over the Four
Corners. Sfc high pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley will
continue to slowly modify. As a result we can expect very typical
autumn weather in the short-term with clear skies, crisp nights, and
a mild day. Daytime temps will run close to persistence, and
favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow most locations
to drop into the 40s. Could see a few upper 30s in wind-sheltered
valleys, and SDF might not drop below 50 with the heat island.
Forecast soundings do show a layer of very dry air just above the
boundary layer, and this setup is favorable for a mixdown that would
drop relative humidity to 25-30 percent this afternoon. However,
fire weather concerns are mitigated by light N-NE winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
Synopsis...Semi-stationary mid-level ridge located over the
Intermountain West and Central US will continue channeling northern-
stream energy from Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast US. A
broad upper-level low ejecting through the East Coast on Thursday
will nudge a weak shortwave trough and associated diffuse front
through the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Then, next chance of wave
intrusion will be late this weekend when the mid-level ridge
strengthens considerably into southern Canada supporting downstream
amplification and a drier/cooler airmass.
Model Confidence/Evaluation...Overall, there is relatively high
confidence in the weather conditions for the next seven days in the
Lower Ohio Valley. Global deterministic guidance follows a similar
synoptic trend through the weekend, so aside from a few adjustments
to account for small-scale factors, expect little day-to-day change
in the forecast. Models start to diverge in the 500-mb pattern early
next week regarding the trough amplification across the East, which
may impact the cold air advection extent and its residence time.
Wednesday - Friday...Sunny weather continues for the rest of the
workweek thanks to surface high pressure and dry airmass in place.
Dry (backdoor) cold front will arrive on Thursday to drive a brief
temperature drop, most notably Thursday night into Friday morning,
given cold air advection under northeasterly winds. By Friday, a
warming trend will begin as surface winds turn to the south and high
pressure moves to the Southeast US.
Weekend...Warming temperatures will carry on this weekend with highs
Saturday and Sunday in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will turn
southwesterly ahead of the approaching front with some gusts around
20-25 mph Sunday afternoon based on the track of the surface low
across the Upper Ohio Valley. Although the amplifying trough will
foster enhanced mid-level winds over the forecast area, the low
levels will remain dry enough to limit any thunderstorm chances and
only mention isolated showers or maybe just sprinkles Sunday night.
Next Week...Below-normal temperatures and sunny conditions appear
likely most of the week with a non-zero chance of frost across the
river valleys and sheltered locations.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
VFR conditions through the TAF period as a very dry air mass
maintains clear skies. Nearly calm winds overnight will settle into
a northerly direction with daytime mixing, with the exception of BWG
where it will be NE. Speeds around 6 kt or less.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...ALL
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 3:13 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
