CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 4:03 AM EDT504
FXUS61 KCLE 080803
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will expand from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley today then
slowly build south to the Appalachians through Friday. Low pressure
will track east across Lake Erie on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad area of high pressure over the Midwest will strengthen
across the Ohio Valley today. Skies will be sunny for most of the
area with a dry airmass in place. Meanwhile an upper level trough
remains positioned across eastern Canada and the eastern Great
Lakes. Temperatures will be cooler in the east due to the proximity
of the trough with highs in the lower 60s while western portions of
the forecast area will be near 70 degrees. Scattered clouds are
expected off eastern Lake Erie today and will thicken a little more
tonight as a shortwave swings across the lakes. There will be a
chance for a couple showers in NW Pennsylvania, mainly tonight, with
a brief window of deeper moisture. A weak surface trough will cross
Lake Erie tonight with some light winds and mixing preventing
temperatures from getting much below 40 degrees. A couple cooler
spots could dip into the upper 30s while most of the area will be in
the low 40s and lakeshore areas in the upper 40s. Scattered lake
effect clouds on Wednesday will clear giving way to another dry and
mostly sunny day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
One last shortwave rotating around the departing upper trough to our
east will clip the area Wednesday evening before high pressure
builds in and takes total control of our weather. Just have a slight
chance (20%) mention for showers in Erie County PA Wednesday evening
with this feature. Some shallow lake effect clouds may then persist
south-southeast of the central and eastern portion of Lake Erie into
Thursday, though otherwise dry and mainly clear conditions are
expected through Friday evening. A cold front will approach from the
north late Friday night...the amount of moisture is limited, though
some showers could be possible after midnight Friday night. For now
just have a limited 20-30% mention across northern counties.
Lows Wednesday night will generally be in the 30s and 40s, with 30s
confined to interior locations that can clear the skies and calm the
winds. A bit of patchy frost is possible. Highs on Thursday will
generally be in the 60s, with northwest PA staying in the 50s. With
high pressure more firmly in control Thursday night stronger
radiational cooling is expected, especially east of the I-71
corridor where winds will be calmest. Locations outside of the more
urban Cleveland area and lake influence should dip into the 30s east
of I-71, with locations farther west and closer to the lake staying
milder. The early impression is that a more notable frost potential
that could prompt an advisory for parts of the area is possible
Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs will begin warming on
Friday as southwest flow starts picking up ahead of the approaching
cold front, with much of Ohio rising well into the 70s while
northwest PA likely stays in the mid to upper 60s. Lows Friday night
will be much milder, mainly in the 50s with a few 40s towards
PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will settle into the area on Saturday before
stalling. A potent upper trough will dive into the Great Lakes and
southeastern Canada Saturday night into Sunday, before closing off
and only slowly drifting east into the start of next week. Surface
low pressure will likely develop ahead of the trough and track
through the region Sunday. Disagreement remains on the intensity and
track of this low. Shower chances may linger into early Saturday as
the front sags in. We should dry out for the rest of Saturday and
most of Saturday night. Rain potential then ramps back up into
Sunday as low pressure tracks through the region and drags the front
back through as a potent cold front behind it later Sunday or Sunday
night. Chilly cyclonic flow will keep spotty shower chances going
area-wide into early next week, with higher chances east-southeast
of Lake Erie. The potential exists for a period of breezier weather
Sunday into Monday depending on how strong the low pressure ends up
getting. Either way, it will be fairly mild Saturday into Sunday
with highs in the 60s to perhaps lower 70s and lows mainly in the
40s and 50s. Cooler air is slated to arrive behind the front with
the current forecast keeping everyone in the 50s Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Clear skies and VFR conditions are in place across the area and
will persist overnight. Light winds overnight may allow a few
restrictions to visibility towards sunrise but only included a
tempo for BR at YNG where it seemed most likely based on good
cooling this evening. Scattered clouds are possible off the east
half of Lake Erie during the afternoon with a thicker cloud
field expected to arrive tonight as a trough swings through with
broken skies possible at ERI and YNG. ERI may see a window of MVFR
ceilings although confidence is only medium in this occurring
and may depend on the coverage of showers. Scattered showers are
likely to be in the vicinity after 04Z.
Otherwise winds will be light overnight, then west northwest at
around 8-10 knots this afternoon. A few sites may see gusts to
15-20 knots with the best chances at TOL/FDY. Winds will
decrease slightly again tonight after 23Z.
Outlook...Generally VFR conditions expected this week.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds in the 10-17 knot range are ongoing early this
morning and will build 1-3/2-4 foot waves in the nearshore waters
east of The Islands. We are thinking we'll hold a bit below Small
Craft criteria this morning though it will be choppy. West-northwest
winds will generally persist in the 10-15 knot range through
Wednesday, before shifting more northerly Wednesday night and then
subsiding substantially into Thursday. This will keep conditions
somewhat choppy until early Thursday. A trough will drop across the
lake late Wednesday and briefly increase winds to 15-20 knots,
especially over the central and eastern basins. This will build
waves a bit more and we may need a Small Craft Advisory for a few
eastern nearshore zones late Wednesday into Wednesday night. With
high pressure in control, generally tranquil conditions are expected
Thursday into Friday. Southwest winds will pick up to 10-20 knots
later Friday ahead of an approaching cold front before shifting more
northerly behind the front by early Saturday. Winds should decrease
pretty quickly behind the front during the day Saturday. Waves may
build enough with this frontal passage to warrant some Small Craft
Advisories Friday night into early Saturday, though it's not quite a
slam dunk for a headline yet. Unsettled marine conditions are likely
Sunday into Monday as low pressure and a stronger cold front moves
through the region. Details aren't clear that far out, though at the
least some small craft headlines seem likely in that window. Low
waterspout potential remains late today through Wednesday morning
over the eastern basin with any lake effect showers.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 4:03 AM EDT---------------
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