LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 9:40 PM EDT759
FXUS63 KLMK 080140
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
940 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather and below normal temperatures much of the week.
Very patchy frost possible Tuesday and again Friday morning, in
the sheltered valley locations and typical cold spots.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
It is a quiet and clear night across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
as high pressure located just northwest of the region continues to
dominate the weather in the near term. Clear skies and light winds
have allowed radiational cooling to take full effect, with a
pronounced ridge/valley temperature split in place per latest
regional obs. This split in temps should continue overnight,
with the warmer metropolitan areas remaining in the mid 40s to
around 50 by sunrise Tuesday, while the cooler valleys should
fall into the low 40s, with some upper 30s possible in the
typical cold locations. With as dry of an air mass as there is
in place, it will be difficult for any patchy fog to form, but
we'll keep a mention in for the deepest river valleys around
sunrise Tuesday.
The forecast remains on track at this hour, with updated grids and
products to be sent shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
Northwest flow ahead of an upper ridge is pushing a surface high,
currently sitting over the southern Midwest and northern Ozarks,
towards the Lower Ohio Valley. As southern Indiana and central
Kentucky sits east of this high, cold air advection will remain in
place through the short-term, but as the high nears the region
tonight and tomorrow, winds will weaken, easing CAA.
Tonight, clear skies and easing winds will allow for some added
radiative cooling along with the weak CAA. Temperatures will respond
by falling into the 40s. SDF will likely remain the warm spot, only
falling to 50. In protected areas that see the low 40s, patchy frost
could be possible.
Tomorrow, lots of sunshine with weakened CAA will help high
temperatures climb slightly higher than today's as low to mid 70s
will be common. A few areas east of Interstate 65 may only make it
into the upper 60s again. The best chances will be farther to the
east along the CWA's border.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
Fair weather continues to look likely in central KY and southern IN
through much of the medium range. High pressure and a dry airmass
will remain in place through the end of the week. Wednesday will
feature a crisp morning with lows in the low to mid 40s in most
places. A few of our coolest sheltered spots may dip into the upper
30s. Temperatures will warm quickly after sunrise, however, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. A few of our warmest spots
near and west of 65 may briefly touch the upper 70s.
Wednesday night into Thursday, Hurricane Milton will continue to
bring significant rainfall, flooding, wind, and storm surge impacts
to Florida. We won't see any impactful weather due to Milton in KY,
however. The latest NHC forecast track takes Milton northeast across
the FL peninsula and then out into the Atlantic. We'll see mostly
clear skies and light winds late this week with high pressure still
in place over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Expect cool mornings,
especially Friday with readings dipping into the upper 30s to mid
40s. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s will be common.
Low-level ridging shifts southward this weekend as a weak cold front
drops down from the north. A digging upper level wave will likely
help deepen a sfc low along this baroclinic zone to our northeast
across the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic late in the weekend.
However, in our neck of the woods this frontal boundary will not
have much moisture to work with. Thus, mainly dry weather
continues. We will see warmer temps this weekend with an influx
of warmer air ahead of the cold front. Highs will reach the
75-80 degree range. Cooler air will likely flood the region
early next week in the wake of the frontal boundary.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
A large area of high pressure will be centered just to the northwest
of the region during the current forecast period. This should lead
to continued VFR conditions with light and variable winds overnight
and light northerly winds on Tuesday. With winds slacking off
tonight, couldn't completely rule out brief MVFR visibilities
between 09-13Z Tuesday, particularly at BWG/HNB/RGA. However, the
confidence in this is low enough that we'll refrain from any mention
in this forecast.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 9:40 PM EDT---------------
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