CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 1:41 PM EDT896
FXUS61 KCLE 071741
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
141 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build in today and tonight and remain in
control through the work week. A frontal boundary will move in from
the north and stall this weekend, with low pressure tracking along
this front on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9:00 AM Update...
Forecast remains on track this morning as upper level trough and
accompanying shortwave move over Lake Erie. This has led to
cooler and cloudy conditions as northerly flow over the lake has
led to lake enhanced clouds downwind of the lake. Afternoon
highs will be roughly 20 degrees cooler compared to yesterday
with highs generally in the low to mid 60s, upper 50s across
inland Northwest Pennsylvania.
Previous discussion...
Much cooler and mainly quiet weather is expected to start the week as
Canadian high pressure builds in, bringing in a push of temperatures
to the local area that is much more typical of early October. A
subtle trough axis will enhance lake effect clouds this morning.
Some light showers are possible downwind of the lake in extreme
northeast Ohio and northwest PA...handled with some 20-30% POPs. High
pressure wedges in later this afternoon into this evening which
should cause a lull in any lake effect. A couple more troughs will
cross in broad west-northwest flow late tonight and again later
Tuesday afternoon/evening, and have corresponding increases in cloud
cover downwind of the lake along with period of low (20-30%) POPs for
a few light lake effect rain showers in parts of far northeast OH
and northwest PA with both troughs. Outside of the minor lake effect
it will be dry with mixed skies (though it should be more clear than
cloudy once far enough removed from the lake influence).
It will be nearly 20 degrees cooler today than Sunday, with highs
ranging from the upper 50s in the higher terrain of northwest PA to
the low to mid 60s elsewhere. Lows tonight will generally be in the
40s, with somewhat favorable radiational cooling conditions.
Locations along the immediate lakeshore will be much milder (perhaps
staying above 50), while some interior locations that are able to
decouple could fall into the mid to upper 30s. There will be a slight
gradient/breeze tonight, so there will likely be a very noticeable
temperature spread over short distances between more rural/sheltered
locations that can decouple and more hilly locations and locations
along the lakeshore that keep a bit more of a breeze. While there
should be breaks in the lake effect clouds there will be some around
across northeast OH and northwest PA, adding some additional
uncertainty for low temperatures. Some patchy frost is possible where
winds do decouple long enough to see temperatures fall into the 30s,
though coverage should be patchy at most and confidence in where any
frost occurs isn't high. Given this, don't currently expect a need
for an advisory unless today's guidance comes in with a much better
signal to calm the winds/clear the skies and drop temperatures well
into the 30s across parts of our area. Highs Tuesday will warm a bit
from today, ranging from the upper 50s in the highest terrain of
northwest PA to the upper 60s/near 70 along the I-75 corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough over eastern Canada shifts off the New England
Coast by Thursday morning. Before doing so, a shortwave crosses
eastern Lake Erie Tuesday evening bringing an increase in lift and a
little better moisture which could result in a few lake enhanced
rain showers in NW PA. Water temperatures remain warm for early
October and models suggest nearly 700J/kg of lake induced CAPE.
Deeper moisture moves through quickly though so will just carry low
pops in our PA counties as it looks like a brief window. High
pressure expands east across the lake on Wednesday and temperatures
warm a couple degrees. One more piece of energy swings south across
the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday night and will provide another
shot of cool air before the trough pulls away to the east. High
temperatures on Thursday will be seasonally cool with highs in the
50s in Pennsylvania to low and mid 60s in Ohio. Strengthening high
pressure should limit cloud cover.
Overnight lows will tend to be in the low 40s, although a few areas
will dip into the upper 30s each night. Thursday night looks to be
the coolest with winds going calm for a period of time. Coverage of
frost will be minimal but a few cooler locations could see patchy
frost mid-week.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridge builds into the Great Lakes Region on Friday
before a trough crossing Canada deepens across Ontario and Quebec on
Saturday. Temperatures warm back to near or slightly above normal on
Friday. A trailing cold front is likely to cross the area on
Saturday and temperatures will be impacted by the timing of the
front. By Sunday another area of low pressure is forecast to develop
over the Midwest and cross near or just south of Lake Erie. We will
be watching the track of this stronger system which could bring
precipitation and breezy/windy conditions for Sunday. Temperatures
will also be impacted by which side of the system we are on.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions across terminals as Canadian high pressure
gradually builds eastward into Northern Ohio today. A weak
surface trough and energy aloft has allowed for low end VFR lake
effect clouds to spread across eastern terminals. Anticipating
for BKN/OVC 4-5 kft clouds to gradually scattered out through
this evening as the high builds in. Some light lake effect rain
showers may return at KERI Tuesday morning/early afternoon.
Northwesterly winds 8-12 knots with occasional gusts 18-20
knots will gradually decrease below 7 knots while turning
westerly. Northwesterly winds 8-10 knots return near the end of
the TAF window.
Outlook...Generally VFR conditions expected this week.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on Lake Erie east of the
Lake Erie Islands through 4 PM this afternoon. Winds of 15-25 knots
early this morning will decrease to 10-15 knots this afternoon
allowing wave heights to also subside. A cooler northwest flow
pattern is expected to persist through mid-week with choppy
conditions expected at times. Northwest winds of 15-20 knots are
expected late tonight into Tuesday morning and may need another
brief Small Craft Advisory east of Cleveland. Given this cooler
pattern with broad cyclonic flow and a few lake effect rain showers,
can not rule out the potential for waterspouts. Moisture depth is
limited at times so only included a slight chance of waterspouts
east of Geneva-on-the-Lake.
High pressure builds over the Central Great Lakes on Thursday with
decreasing winds. Southwesterly winds increase on Friday to 10-20
knots as low pressure passes north of the Great Lakes.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...KEC
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 1:41 PM EDT---------------
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