JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 4:10 AM EDT093
FXUS63 KJKL 060810
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
410 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A passing cold front brings a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to mainly eastern parts of the area this evening
and into the night.
- Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees above normal again
today before typical autumn-like readings arrive on Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2024
07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to pull away from
the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The high
has been enough to keep skies mostly clear this night and allow
for good radiational cooling resulting in a decent ridge to valley
temperature split. Specifically, readings range from near 50
degrees in some of the sheltered valleys to the lower 60s on the
ridges. Meanwhile, amid light to calm winds, dewpoints are
generally in the mid to upper 50s across the JKL CWA. Some fog
has shown up in the river valleys, per obs and satellite, and has
likely become locally dense.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict a sharp trough brushing by to the north of
Kentucky tonight as its core swings east through the eastern
Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. This will mean healthy 5h
height falls for eastern Kentucky this evening and overnight with
the best mid level energy passing just after midnight. Heights
will then start to rebound on Monday in relatively weak northwest
flow. The small model spread warranted using the NBM solution as
the starting point for the grids with some minor adjustments
mainly involving PoPs this evening per input from the latest high
resolution CAMs.
Sensible weather features one last very warm day, once the valley
fog clears, ahead of a cold front moving in during the evening
from northwest to southeast. This boundary looks to take advantage
of some instability, acting as a lifting mechanism, to probably
create a band of showers and a few thunderstorms passing through
eastern Kentucky. The convection is modeled to be more intense
just east of the state with better upper support but a strong
storm cannot be ruled out around sunset in the eastern part of the
CWA if the parameters come together. This boundary and the pcpn
moves steadily through the area into the early overnight hours.
This front also brings a change in air mass to the area with
temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees colder in its wake and dry
weather follows through most of the upcoming week.
The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
adjusting details of the PoPs this evening and into the night per
the latest CAMs solutions. Also, tweaked temperatures this
morning to account for more terrain distinction.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2024
The forecast period begins with surface high pressure nudging into
the region from the Central Plains. Aloft, northwesterly flow will
aid in bringing post-frontal CAA to the Commonwealth. This forecast
CAA will usher in more fall-like temperatures through much of the
forecast period. Highs will climb into the upper-60s to low-70s
every day with overnight lows falling into the low to mid-40s with
even colder temperatures in the sheltered valleys. Ensemble
probabilities suggest that a few sheltered valleys my fall into the
mid to upper-30s Thursday night and again Friday.
Attention turns away from the forecast area briefly as NHC has
another named tropical storm on its hands. Tropical Storm Milton has
formed in the Bay of Campeche and will track east-northeast into the
Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Florida on Wednesday. The
strong upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will ensure
Milton stays away from the Commonwealth; however, cloud cover and
easterly winds associated with Milton are expected during the day
Thursday. As mentioned above, high pressure will remain stationary
over much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the end of the
period but a cold front may bring an end to the dry weather Sunday
into Monday.
Overall, a deterministic forecast of high pressure will exist
through the period which will keep the forecast area dry and
experiencing October-like weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2024
VFR will prevail throughout the period. The lone exception will
be fog in the valleys through 14Z. Impacts at the TAF sites will
likely be less than the past couple of mornings. High pressure
will also be moving east during the period as cold front beings to
approach and winds turn more south to southwest this night on
ridges and in more open terrain areas, and then southwest after
the nocturnal inversion mixes out around 15Z. The wind may also
lead to some mixiness outside of the deeper sheltered valleys and
limit fog development there in places such as KLOZ and KSYM.
Otherwise, winds will be light and variable through the rest of
the night and becoming southwest at 5 to 10 kts after 15Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 4:10 AM EDT---------------
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