NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 6, 7:00 PM AST195
WTNT43 KNHC 061453
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
Leslie has continued to produce a deep ring of convection around the
center, with a faint eye becoming more apparent on infrared and
visible satellite imagery, and GLM lightning data depicts lightning
occuring in the northern eyewall. These satellite trends all
depict Leslie is still strengthening within a marginally favorable
environment. Dvorak subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates have continued to increase this cycle and range from 70
to 85 kt. Based on these satellite data, the initial intensity
is raised to 80 kt.
Leslie is moving northwestward (310/8 kt) while being steered by a
subtropical ridge centered to the northeast of the hurricane. The
ridge will remain anchored over the eastern Atlantic and continue to
steer the hurricane northwestward throughout the forecast period. As
a result, model guidance is fairly tightly clustered with only a few
slight leftward adjustments made towards the end of the forecast
period, closer to the HCCA corrected consensus.
The hurricane has been able to maintain its core even though wind
shear is gradually increasing over the system. Leslie has about 12
more hours before it begins to move into an increasingly unfavorable
environment. In the near term the forecast allows for some
additional strengthening, especially if Leslie's eye can clear.
However, drier mid-level air is nearby as is depicted on water vapor
imagery, as well as a less difluent upper-level pattern, and
southwesterly shear will persist. The latest NHC forecast follows
the latest model trends with gradual weakening beginning on Monday.
Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it could be
more susceptible to these negative factors and weaken even faster
than the NHC forecast later in the period, as suggested by some of
the global and hurricane regional models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 13.3N 37.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 14.2N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 16.6N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 19.2N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 22.2N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 24.2N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 6, 7:00 PM AST---------------
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