JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 4:05 PM EDT648
FXUS63 KJKL 052005
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
405 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A passing cold front brings a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to mainly eastern parts of the area on Sunday
evening and Sunday night.
- Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees above normal again
Sunday before typical autumn-like readings arrive on Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 404 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024
Overall a fairly quiet short term period despite an incoming system.
High pressure east of the state this afternoon will continue to
shift away from the region, though we should still remain under it's
control through tomorrow. Heights will begin to lower aloft during
the day Sunday as a strong upper level low moves towards the Upper
Great Lakes. At the surface this will produce a low pressure system
and a cold front which will trail southward through the Ohio Valley.
It should reach western Kentucky during the afternoon hours Sunday,
central and eastern Kentucky by 0Z Monday, and move out of the state
around 6Z or shortly after.
For tonight, given how much fog we incurred last night and this
morning, and the light winds still in place, can't rule out a repeat
of last night. However, with a day of drying, hopefully the extent
and intensity will not be as impactful. Did include areas of fog in
the river valleys, but will have to keep an eye on it heading into
the overnight for any updates to the forecast.
With the high pressure located to our northeast, and an incoming
frontal system, light and variable winds today and tonight will
shift to a more southwesterly direction through the day Sunday. This
will help to advect warmer air into the region, with highs topping
out in the low and mid 80s, a degree or two higher than today. All
models show moisture along the front, but given how far away we are
from the parent low, most of the moisture and precip chances will be
north of the state. That being said, all models are in good
agreement that some precip will scrape the eastern CWA, producing
light rain amounts. Given the warm temps and the frontal boundary,
can't rule out some instability along the front, so did keep in some
thunder wording as it moves through.
As the front exits in the middle of the night, you can see a lot of
dry air filtering in behind as NW flow takes hold and high pressure
sits off to our west. Because of the quick transport of drier air
into the region, skies should also quickly clear out. Therefore,
can't rule out some ridge/valley temperatures differences. Overall,
temperatures should be cool with the combination of CAA, clear
skies, and light winds - overnight lows will generally be in the 40s
to around 50. Also kept some fog chances in the deep valleys given
the lingering moisture on the ground with a more stable airmass
moving in and the low temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024
A negatively tilted trough over Southeast Canada and Northeastern
CONUS will continue its progression next week into the Nova Scotia
area, while a ridge of high pressure builds across Western CONUS.
The next tropical system, Tropical Storm Milton, located in the
western Gulf of Mexico, is currently forecasted to track north and
east over Florida and continue out over the Atlantic Ocean.
Eastern Kentuckys weather will be quiet during this stretch with
seasonable temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s during the
days, and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s in valleys, and low to
mid 40s along ridgetops.
Friday and Saturday, the ridge of high pressure over the Central
U.S. will continue to progress east towards the area. This will lead
to rising heights aloft, and subsequently temperatures warming into
the low to mid 70s by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024
VFR will prevail throughout today. Fog is expected to develop in
valleys again tonight, but impacts at the TAF sites remain
uncertain. Based on the impacts experienced at SJS this morning,
went ahead and did lower their VIS down to IFR, though certainty
on this is still not high. High pressure will also be moving east
and winds will become more SWrly ahead of an incoming front, which
could also sway some of the fog development. Otherwise, winds
will be light and variable through tomorrow morning, becoming
predominately southwest between 5 and 12 mph by 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JMW
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 4:05 PM EDT---------------
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