ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 3:57 PM EDT299
FXUS61 KILN 051957
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue overnight into Sunday morning as high
pressure pushes across the Great Lakes. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Sunday afternoon in eastern parts of the area
as a cold front moves through the region. Dry conditions will
return for the remainder of next week as high pressure builds
across most of the United States.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Westerly mid level flow with ridge axis building from the Great
Lakes into New England overnight. Surface high pressure will
build east of the area overnight offering a low level southerly
flow. The southerly flow will gradually pick up some toward
daybreak ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
Expect mostly clear skies with only some high level clouds
overnight. Temperatures will be milder with lows from the lower
50s east to the lower 60s west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to track through the Great Lakes
with a fairly strong surface front pushing thru ILN/s area
Sunday afternoon. Moderate instability develops across ILN/s
eastern counties with the front to the I-71 corridor by 18Z.
Shower and thunderstorm chances should be highest east of the
front across Central and South Central Ohio and Northeast
Kentucky late in the afternoon into very early evening. The
environment supports some organization to storms - mainly along
the leading edge of the front. A few of the storms could
become strong to severe late in the day across the far east
prior to the front moving out of the ILN FA. The main threats
will be wind and hail.
Temperatures on Sunday will be warm, with highs from 80 to 85.
Southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph will gust to 25 to 30 mph prior
to shifting west with the frontal passage.
Any convection that develops in the far east will end early in
the evening and skies will clear behind the front as drier air
advects into the region on northwest winds. Temperatures to drop
to lows in the mid and upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will gradually build in from the west Monday through
Wednesday. Light northerly flow persists while the center of the high
remains to the west. Accordingly, the forecast highs and lows remain
on the cool side through Wednesday night. Generally, highs will be
in the upper 60s and lows will be in the 40s. Mostly clear skies are
expected.
Temperatures start to moderate the second half of the week when the
surface high shifts just east of the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow
redevelops which will help highs moderate through the 70s to near 80
by next weekend. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions persist.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds east of the area today with VFR
conditions expected through the afternoon into tonight. The
exception is KLUK, where MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible at
due to river valley fog toward sunrise.
Expect mainly clear skies overnight with only some high level
clouds. The pressure gradient increases Sunday ahead of a cold
front with southwest winds gusting up 25 kts in the afternoon.
Any showers or thunderstorms that develop will be along and east
of I-71 after 18Z - with KCMH and KLCK possibly being impacted
by ISOLD thunderstorms.
The front pushes thru the area late in the day accompanied by
brief period of VFR clouds around 4000 feet followed by evening
clearing.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 3:57 PM EDT---------------
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