NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 5, 7:00 AM AST841
WTNT43 KNHC 050239
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
Leslie continues to become better organized this evening. An SSMIS
microwave pass from 1946 UTC showed that Leslie had a small inner
core with a well-defined mid-level center. Subjective satellite
intensity guidance has held steady while objective guidance has
increased significantly, creating a wide range of possible
intensities (56-84 kt). For this advisory, the maximum sustained
winds have been increased to 65 kt, which is closest to the SAB T4.0
classification. Leslie is the eighth hurricane in the Atlantic this
season.
A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is steering the
hurricane slowly to the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. There has been
no changes to the track reasoning. The ridge should be the dominant
steering feature through the entire forecast period, turning Leslie
northwestward by Saturday and continue this motion through the
middle of next week. Only minor updates were made to the latest NHC
track forecast.
Based on the UW-CIMSS satellite wind analysis, Leslie is on the edge
of a shear gradient, with the core in an area of moderate-to-weak
vertical wind shear. Global models suggest environmental conditions
will be conducive for about a day and half before the shear begins
to increase and Leslie moves into a drier airmass. These conditions
should induce gradual weakening. There is still a large spread in
the intensity guidance envelope, which seems related to the strength
of the vertical wind shear Leslie could encounter. Overall, the
guidance has once shifted downward this cycle, and the NHC intensity
forecast has been lowered at 60 h and beyond. The forecast still
lies at the high end of the intensity aids and additional
adjustments may be needed in later advisories.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 10.4N 34.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 11.6N 36.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 14.1N 38.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 16.9N 42.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 19.5N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 21.8N 48.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 5, 7:00 AM AST---------------
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