IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 3:36 AM EDT147
FXUS63 KIWX 030736
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
336 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Little if any rain through early next week.
- Unseasonably mild with highs in the 70s through Sunday, cooler
Monday with highs in the 60s.
- Possible Red Flag Warning conditions Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Return flow was already underway with the surface high pressure area
to the east. Shallow cold air will mix out quickly rendering highs
well into the 70s this afternoon. Some concern for fire weather
issues with relative humidities falling to around 30 percent
and fine dead fuels rapidly drying out. Light winds should help
minimize most fire weather concerns today.
The first of two upper level systems will race across the Upper
Great Lakes region as the system tops an expansive subtropical
ridge (near 590 decameters) over Georgia. Continue to prefer the
GFS with handling isentropic fields in synoptic patterns including
this one. The GFS has trended drier with lower saturation in a
small window Friday afternoon. Given the higher based clouds and
dry sub-cloud area, it looks like this atmospheric environment
will not support any precipitation beyond sprinkles. Given the
ongoing dry forecast have opted to keep Friday dry.
A much different setup is ahead Sunday as an Elevated Mixed
Layer with 700/500mb lapse rates moves into and then moves
rapidly across the area. Have eliminated most blend rain chances
given the massive cap associated with the EML over the area
early followed by post-frontal much drier air during the
afternoon. Have also lowered model blend dew points which should
allow afternoon relative humidities to fall to near 25 percent.
Concern also that the drier air spreading into the area will
bring the potential for field, grass and brush fires as fine
dead fuels dry out and as heavy machinery continue during the
fall harvest. It is possible a Red Flag Warning may be needed
Sunday given high temperatures reaching from 75 to 80, relative
humidities falling to near 25 percent and breezy to windy
conditions. Cooler air will spread over the area Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
Low level ridge axis has shifted east of the terminals setting
up weak southerly flow across northern Indiana. This gradient
will persist into the afternoon, but a weak cool front will
approach from the northwest late this afternoon into this
evening. Timing of the frontal passage should bring a brief
period of light northwest winds at KSBN toward evening, but
otherwise, post-frontal winds should generally be light and
variable into this evening. Mainly clear skies are expected
through the period with just some low coverage patchy high
clouds possible today.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 3:36 AM EDT---------------
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