NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 4, 7:00 PM AST143
WTNT42 KNHC 041432
TCDAT2
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
The satellite appearance of Kirk is a little less impressive than
it was six hours ago, as the eye has become somewhat cloud-filled
and the convective cloud tops have warmed a little. Recent
microwave imagery suggests that the hurricane may be starting an
eyewall replacement cycle, with an outer convective band wrapped
about three-quarters of the way around the eyewall. The various
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have trended
downward, and based on a combination of these estimates the initial
intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The wind radii have been tweaked
based on a recent ASCAT overpass.
The initial motion is 315/10. Kirk is currently approaching a large
break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer low centered
near 33N 60W. During the next 48-60 h, the hurricane should recurve
through this break and accelerate northeastward into the
mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, the cyclone should move
quickly east-northeastward across the northern and northeastern
Atlantic. There has been little change in the track guidance since
the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor
adjustments from the previous track.
Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 h due to the
expected eyewall replacement cycle. After that, Kirk should
encounter increasing southwesterly shear and move over cooler sea
surface temperatures, which should cause a steady weakening.
Extratropical transition is likely to begin between 60-72 h and be
complete by 96 h, with Kirk becoming a strong extratropical cyclone
over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast follows
the general trends of the intensity guidance, and is closest to the
GFS model during the extratropical stage.
Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its
strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean
swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells
will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the Leeward Islands beginning later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For
more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local
weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 23.0N 48.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 30.3N 49.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 33.8N 48.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 45.3N 25.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 48.0N 9.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 4, 7:00 PM AST---------------
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