JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 3:22 AM EDT043
FXUS63 KJKL 040722
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
322 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weak disturbances bring a small chance for rainfall to far
southeastern Kentucky late tonight and Friday.
- A passing cold front brings another chance of showers to the
area on Sunday evening and Sunday night.
- Temperatures run 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Sunday
before typical autumn-like readings arrive on Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2024
No significant changes to overnight forecast at this time other
than minimal adjustments to bring forecast grids in line with
latest observations and short-term model trends.
UPDATE Issued at 1050 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with mainly just the
inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 845 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2024
00Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure in place over the area
which is helping to keep winds light and mainly just some high
clouds in the sky. This system will likely not be strong enough to
keep some sprinkles or a light shower away in the far southeast
tonight as a mid level impulse passes just south of the area.
Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 60s to low 70s
on the ridges with some low 60s showing up in the eastern valleys.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 60s. Look
for a decent ridge to valley temperature split through the night
along with at least some fog in the river valleys - locally dense.
Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and
trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 500 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2024
Late this afternoon, the axis of an upper level ridge extended
from portions of the Caribbean northwest to the southern to
Central Appalachians and then northeast to east of Cape Cod while
another upper level ridge was centered over the Southwest Conus.
An upper level trough extended from portions of the Central to
Southern Plains across the Big Bend Region of TX into northern
portions of Mexico with some disturbances moving around the ridge
axis to the east across western parts of the Gulf of Mexico with
one nearing the mouth of the MS River at this time. Otherwise,
rather strong westerlies extended from the eastern Pacific across
southwestern Canada and the Northwest Conus into broad troughing
that extended form near Hudson Bay to the Upper MS Valley to
portions of the Plains. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure
extended from southeast of the Northeast U.S. coast to the mid
Atlantic states to the OH Valley and also portions of the
Southeast as well. Meanwhile, a cold front extended from an area
of low pressure over Canada to near Lake Huron to the southern end
of Lake MI before becoming wavy over parts of Plains and
extending to the OK and TX panhandle vicinity and then to the
Rockies and further into the western Conus.
Tonight and Friday, the axis of the upper level ridge will shift
east while an upper level trough axis will shift east and work
across the western to Central Great Lakes and into portions of
the OH Valley and Appalachians. At the same time, upper level
ridging should build east into the Southern Plains from the
Southwest Conus in the wake of the disturbance/shortwave that is
near the mouth of the MS River at present that tracks around the
departing ridging and into parts of the Southeast Conus and
southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, the cold front/frontal zone
initially extending to the Great Lakes to Central Conus will move
to the Maritimes to Northeast Conus to Central Appalachians to
mid MS Valley through Friday. For Friday night, upper level
ridging should build east into parts of the TN Valley to Southern
Appalachians to as well as the Great Lakes. Associated sfc high
pressure should build from the Northern Plains to western to
Central Great Lakes through Friday and then to Quebec to the
eastern Great Lakes to mid OH Valley on Friday night, nosing into
eastern KY as the cold front sags south of the area to end the
period.
As the upper level trough approaches from the west as well as the
cold front the disturbance moving across the southeast and nearing
the southern Appalachians will bring an increase in moisture into
the southern and southeast portions of the area. This should lead
to at a minimum low and mid level cloud cover tonight and some
guidance suggests a few showers as well into the Cumberland
Mountains area from Bell to Letcher Counties near the VA border.
The deeper moisture with PW 1.1 to 1.4 inches should linger into
the day on Friday, mainly across the south and southeast as the
shortwave trough axis nears from the west and the cold front
approaches. This should lead to some continued or renewed low and
mid level clouds during peak heating along with the potential for
showers generally east of I 75 and to the south of the Hal Rogers
Parkway/KY 80 corridors. However, some of this could occur an tier
or two of counties further north. For not have isolated to
scattered pops in the more southern areas nearer to VA as
previously described on Friday. Thunder cannot be completely
ruled out near the VA border then. However, both late tonight and
on Friday, a buffer of sprinkle chances further north was
included as these that could fall from cumulus or alto cumulus.
Otherwise, skies should gradually clear on Friday night as high
pressure noses into eastern KY and chances for showers end during
Friday evening. Some valley fog is anticipated tonight,
especially where low and mid clouds develop or move in later.
Valley fog should also be a feature again on Friday night,
especially southeast even behind the boundary as winds slacken.
Lows tonight should generally be cooler in the north where clouds
should be fewer and or arrive/develop later tonight. Lower
dewpoints there should also allow for some of the more northern
valleys near or north of the Mtn Parkway to be locally cooler
tonight nearer to the 50 degree mark or lower 50s. Highs on
Friday ahead of the boundary should again be above normal by 5 to
10 degrees on average. Northern locations should again be colder
than areas further south due to lower dewpoints and earlier
clearing. Some of the normally colder valleys could reach 49 or so
in some instances.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2024
The forecast period begins with surface high pressure in place.
Also, as an approaching cold front moves closer to the region,
southwesterly flow will exist leading to warmer temperatures pre-
frontal. Through the overnight Saturday into Sunday, an upper-level
trough and surface low will track through souther-central Canada.
Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid-
80s. FROPA is expected to occur Sunday afternoon with showers and
isolated thunderstorms persisting through the overnight. Showers and
storms will taper off from northwest to southeast Sunday night into
Monday with high pressure nudging in from the north. Surface high
pressure will remain present over the forecast area through the
remainder of the period. Temperatures will return to much more fall-
like weather with highs climbing into the upper-60s to low-70s. Due
to post-frontal CAA and persistent northwesterly flow, overnight
lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid-40s with even colder
temperatures in the sheltered valleys.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2024
All TAF site terminals were VFR at issuance time. Fog has
developed in the mainstem river valleys and is bringing localized
VLIFR to KBYL and KI35. This fog, though less widespread, is
expected to thicken and could impact the TAF sites at least
briefly through 13z. VFR conditions then prevail through the area
for the remainder of the daylight hours, outside of a possible
stray shower or thunderstorm near the Virginia-Kentucky border.
Fog is expected to develop again Friday night in the river valleys
but impacts are not expected at the TAF sites through 06z. Winds
will be light through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 3:22 AM EDT---------------
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