IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 4:19 AM EDT515
FXUS63 KIWX 010819
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
419 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy Dense fog lifting this morning.
- Chance for non-severe storms east of I-69 late today.
- Wednesday through Sunday - little if any rain. Very mild for
this time of year with highs through the period from near 70
to 80.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
Skies were clearing rapidly from the west early this morning
over far southwest Lower Michigan into northwest Indiana. Very
high moisture/dew points at the surface should allow dense fog
to form rapidly west of a line from Coldwater to Columbia City
to Marion as skies clear. The fog should lift rapidly ahead of a
fast moving cold front. Kept chances for thunder east of I-69.
Although moisture is available for storms, the atmospheric mid
levels are extremely stable with lapse rates <5C/Km per 00Z
BUFKIT soundings. Low level shear is also lacking. Otherwise, a
high zonal flow should set up and limit rain chances the rest of
the week. Kept highs generally above to much above normal
through the weekend from around 70 to near 80 most days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
VFR conditions at both terminals as of this writing, with
deterioration to MVFR most likely at both sites in terms of at
least ceilings (KFWA also visibility) with stratus deck in
place. In locations where clearing occurred, patches of fog
developed reasonably quickly-with visibilities around 2-4SM for
the most part right now, a few 1 1/2, one 1/4 mile (especially
up in SE Lower MI). Have a tempo for IFR at KFWA from 10-14z,
with MVFR tempo until 10z as they are currently beneath an area
of clearing and may get some BR. Models also hint at the
potential for just a lower deck of stratus around 700 feet
starting around the same time. Given uncertainty decided not to
go below IFR until we see more widespread conditions. KSBN looks
to stay MVFR-more so in ceilings however wouldn't be surprised
to see a little bit of BR develop if we get a clearing-so have
6SM for now 12-16z. Conditions improve to VFR after that,
however there are showers and thunderstorms possible with a cold
front moving through, with precipitation mainly developing east
of KSBN. Could be a stray sprinkle or light shower, but
confidence is low. Winds will shift to the northwest gusting to
20-25 knots through the afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 4:19 AM EDT---------------
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