BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 12:39 AM EDT186
FXUS61 KBOX 300439
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1239 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to provide dry conditions to the region
into early next week. Low chance for a shower mid-week, followed
by continued dry conditions as high pressure will bring a
return to dry and seasonable weather later in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
No major changes to the forecast at this hour as things remain
on track.
Previous Discussion...
Slightly slowed the return of marine stratus this evening. East
winds are not quite as strong as last evening to advect these
clouds onshore. Not looking there will be much fog with very low
visibility. The greatest risk for that should be in the CT River
Valley. Minor tweaks to sky cover and temperatures to reflect
observed trends.
Overnight into early tomorrow morning clouds filter back in to
areas that were able to break into partial sunshine. Think there
will still be partially clear skies for northern areas that
border southern New Hampshire and Vermont, leading to cooler
temperatures in the upper 40s and 50F. Elsewhere more in the way
of clouds and temperatures in the lower and middle 50s.
Dewpoints fall overnight to the low 50s, could see areas of
ground fog develop across the interior late tonight/predawn
Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Updated: 2:20 PM
Any morning fog and/or stratus will take some time to disperse
given the low sun angle in late September. Still, plenty of
mid and high clouds remain well into the afternoon. With high
pressure to our north the region remains under east to northeast
flow, albeit light winds less than 10 MPH, this will keep
afternoon temperatures seasonably cool and trended the
temperatures lower than the NBM guidance given the outcome of
Sunday's afternoon high temperatures. Expect high temperatures
between 67F and 73F.
Similar conditions Monday night into Tuesday with the return of
low stratus and patchy fog, temperatures are once again in the
low and middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...
* Mostly dry and pleasant weather continues through next week.
* First chance of rain showers comes Wed into Wed night, but
coverage is sporadic and a washout isn't expected.
* Slight chance of rain returns around next weekend, but
confidence is low.
Latest guidance suite has trended slower with moving a high
pressure ridge out of southern New England during the mid week
period. It is now looking like dry weather prevails into
Wednesday morning across our region. The guidance has come into
better agreement on the idea of a cold front arriving late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Limited moisture expected with
this front, so even then the overall risk for showers is low.
Them our region gets stuck in between a few weaker features,
namely a second cold front and a high pressure ridge along the
Appalachians. At this time, thinking the ridge dominates and
maintains dry weather late this week. The increased sunshine
should boost temperatures above normal for early October.
Not much confidence in the details heading into next weekend.
Nearly zonal flow aloft leading to various timing issues amongst
the guidance suite. This would be mainly for the timing of a
cold front heading into next weekend. Latest NationalBlend only
had a 30-40% chance of more than a tenth inch of rainfall within
48 hours ending 8 AM Sunday. Not looking like a washout at this
moment, but there is still a lot of time for these details to
come into better focus.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Rest of this morning...Moderate confidence.
Quite a bit of radiation fog already showing up on satellite
for much of interior SNE. Added tempo groups for off and on fog
this morning. Expecting fog to burn off around 12-13z in the
morning
Today...High confidence.
VFR after the fog burns off with light winds at 5-10 knots from
the ENE. MVFR stratus deck may hang over the Cape and Islands
into the afternoon.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Should be less fog around with a thick high cirrus deck
overhead, however, guidance is hinting at another MVFR stratus
deck forming over Eastern MA and RI.
Tomorrow...Moderate confidence.
MVFR stratus deck should lift and break up by mid morning with
VFR conditions by the afternoon. The only uncertainty is that
winds pick up to 10-15 knots out of the east, which may keep the
low to mid level cloud deck around.
BOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
Mainly VFR, with a chance at fog forming early this morning. If
fog does form, it will likely burn off by 12z. Winds turn ENE
today at 5-10 knots.
BDL TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
Intermittent fog this morning before things begin to clear to
VFR by 12-13z. Winds stay light out of the NNE.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Monday Night...High confidence.
Low chance of an isolated shower for the southern outer waters
rest of today and tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail
through Monday night. Seas and winds remain below S.C.A.
criteria, seas are 2 to 3 foot and winds are east Sunday
afternoon around 10 knots, then becoming light and variable
overnight. Monday winds area northeast 8 to 12 knots.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Belk/Dooley/KP
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...Belk/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 12:39 AM EDT----------------
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