LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 10:31 AM EDT805
FXUS63 KLMK 021431
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1031 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Widely scattered showers possible Sunday afternoon and evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
Mostly clear skies are currently observed across southern Indiana
and most of central Kentucky, except across far southern KY and
areas in the Bluegrass where stratus layer has persisted through the
morning due a nearly saturated layer between a double inversion, per
BNA 12Z sounding. Forecast sounding at BWG and around Lake
Cumberland indicate that the cloud deck could start dissipating or
moving away around 15Z, although some indications of it are already
evidenced on satellite imagery. Rest of the forecast is on track
with minor updates to account for recent observational trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
Remainder of the overnight... The cold front has exited the region
to the east and low level clouds remain trapped underneath an
inversion. These clouds will remain through the rest of the
overnight. In the morning, clouds will begin to mix out and push
east. Just now starting to see upper 50s temperatures and mid 50s
dew points in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Temperatures
and dew points will continue to drop as skies remain clear mostly
clear in these areas and the drier post-frontal airmass continues to
build into the region.
Today... High pressure will continue to build into the region today,
bringing mostly sunny skies, dry conditions, and light northerly
winds. Dew points will continue to drop through the day into the
upper 40s over southern Indiana and low-mid 50s over central
Kentucky. High temperatures will warm into the low-mid 70s. Should
be a very pleasant fall day.
Tonight... High pressure will be overhead allowing calm to light
winds and clear skies to prevail. These conditions will allow for
temperatures to fall into the upper 40s and low 50s and for patchy
fog to develop in the early morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
The Long Term will begin with a quasi-zonal upper pattern, becoming
more meridional over the weekend as an upper trough crosses the
Great Lakes Sunday-Monday. Reminiscent of a summerlike pattern with
the main upper level energy staying to our north near the Canadian
border and general ridging spreading across the southern United
States. This will result in generally quiet weather for the Ohio
Valley with warm temperatures through the weekend.
At the surface, high pressure stretching from New England to the
southern Appalachians will keep our weather dry and a few degrees
warmer than normal Thursday. On Friday, after some early morning
fog, a cold front will make a run at us but will fall apart as it
arrives and should be of little consequence other than to give us a
pre-frontal boost in temperatures. Afternoon highs are forecast in
the 80-85 degree range with dew points in the low 60s. High pressure
behind the front will bring us more dry and warm weather on Saturday
with highs around 80.
Low pressure pivoting form Ontario to Hudson Bay will drag its
trailing cold front through the middle Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon
and evening. There will be a narrow corridor of enhanced moisture
supply just ahead of the front supporting scattered showers. Can't
completely rule out a rumble of thunder, especially north of I-64.
Rainfall amounts from this system should be light.
Monday and Tuesday will be dry as a dome of high pressure advances
from the Midwest to the upper Ohio Valley while another tropical
Gulf system may be approaching Florida. Temperatures will be much
cooler behind Sunday's cold front, with highs around 70 Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
The cold front has exited the region and a band of BKN MVFR
clouds is over BWG and RGA. This band of clouds will continue moving
southeast through the next few hours. Once this passes, thin upper
level clouds will fill into the region. Light winds will remain out
of the north through the day today. In the overnight hours, winds
will veer to a southeasterly direction and remain light. Fog may
develop in the early morning hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ALL
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 10:31 AM EDT---------------
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