LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 12:38 PM EDT194
FXUS63 KLMK 011638
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1238 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Areas of fog early this morning may be dense in spots.
* Cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening will bring widely
scattered light rain showers to the region, especially east of I-
65.
* Dry weather and seasonal temperatures starting on Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
Low clouds and patchy fog linger over the forecast area but will
continue to improve as the morning goes on. Scattered to
isolated showers are expected to move through the area this
afternoon into the early overnight hours, along a weak cold
front. Highs this afternoon will reach near 80 ahead of the
front with lows tonight dropping to near 50 behind the front.
Forecast has been updated to reflect current conditions,
otherwise forecast is on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
Patchy morning fog will lift into patchy clouds that will provide us
with a mix of clouds and sun through the day. A cold front will pass
through the region from west to east mid afternoon through early
evening. The front will lack return flow from the Gulf, and onshore
flow from the North Atlantic courtesy high pressure over Labrador
will stay east of the Appalachians. As a result, perceptible
water values will remain around normal for early October ahead
of the boundary, providing the system with only meager amounts
of moisture. So, only isolated to widely scattered light rain
showers are expected, especially east of I-65. Weak instability
and a stout mid- level inversion will lead to low-topped showers
and lack of any thunder.
Tonight the front will push off to the east with clearing skies
behind it. Right now it looks like there will be enough of a north
breeze persisting through the night to prevent widespread fog, but
some river fog could form in sheltered valleys if the clouds clear
out enough. It will feel decidedly autumnal tonight as the mercury
tumbles into the mid 40s in southern Indiana...to the mid 50s in
southern Kentucky. Ensemble data suggest a 20-30% chance of some
spots in southern Indiana dipping into the lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
On Wednesday, high pressure will build into the region leading to
clear skies and dry conditions. High temperatures Wednesday are
expected to be in the low-mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s and low
50s. These dry conditions will continue Thursday and Friday, as
ridging aloft will build over the region. Temperatures will warm
into the upper 70s and low 80s. The end of this week will welcome
October nicely with pleasant fall conditions.
By this weekend, a shortwave trough will swing through the Great
Lakes bringing a weak front through the Ohio Valley. This front will
be mostly a reinforcing shot of seasonable temperatures and
conditions, but wouldn't throw out of the small chance of a few
light showers along the front.
Early next week, better troughing will swing through the Midwest and
Ohio Valley bringing another front through the region. This front
brings a small chance for a few light showers and seasonable
temperatures. High pressure will build in behind this front allowing
for continued dry and pleasant conditions.
Summary... Long term remains seasonable with pleasant temperatures
and limited PoPs along a weak front moving through on Saturday and
another front early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR Cigs at LEX and RGA this afternoon and tonight.
- VFR Cigs elsewhere
Discussion:
Stratus and low cloud in the wake of a cold front were still
lingering across Eastern Central KY.
GOES16 shows MVFR Cloud cover at LEX and RGA, as well as points
upstream across northern KY. Forecast soundings show an increase in
height with these clouds this afternoon, but moisture lingers
through the evening and overnight as cold air advection continues.
Meanwhile at SDF, HBN and BWG, MVFR CIGS have already exited
the area. Continued northwest flow and ongoing cold air
advection will allow for BKN VFR Cigs through the afternoon
before leading to clearing overnight.
Clear skies and diminishing winds will take hold on Wednesday
morning across all the of Taf sites.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 12:38 PM EDT---------------
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