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498 FXUS64 KMOB 282043AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL343 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Sunday night)Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024Dry conditions look to continue through the remainder of the weekend as large scale subsidence dominates the region south of the nearly stationary and large deep low pressure system centered over the vicinity of Kentucky. Lows tonight and Sunday night should continue to range in the lower to mid 60s over interior locations and in the upper 60s to mid 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. Highs Sunday will be warm in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Beach Note: A persistent moderate southwesterly flow, high tidal ranges, and outgoing tide early this evening will warrant keeping a HIGH rip current risk in effect along the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through this evening. The rip current risk will probably come down by mid to late evening and into the overnight hours tonight, but with southwesterly flow staying elevated into the day Sunday, will likely keep the MODERATE rip current risk in place through Sunday afternoon, especially toward the Florida panhandle beaches. The rip current risk will become LOW by Sunday night. /22&&.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Saturday)Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024The combined remnants of Helene and an upper low that have been meandering over the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys over the weekend weaken and move off as a shortwave trough moves east over the US/Ca border through Monday, leaving a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus. The main portion of the upper trough moves off the East Coast. For the southern end, the latest guidance is advertising the southern end getting caught over the western Gulf between an upper ridge over the Caribbean and an upper ridge building east over the Southern Plains by Wednesday. Form here into the weekend, guidance begins to diverge as the Caribbean upper ridge weakens. Guidance is advertising an easterly wave/tropical system moving into the Gulf Wednesday night. From there, the system moves north into the upper trough, with variations of development, direction and speed. Ensemble guidance shows a wide range of solutions, with faster solutions moving the system towards the northern Gulf coast (on the west side of the de-evolving Caribbean upper ridge), and slower solutions moving ittowards the Florida Peninsula (as the Southern Plains upper ridgebuilds over the Southeast and/or an upper trough digs south over the Plains). Consensus of physicals and ensembles limit the northward movement of this system, so have limited it effects on the current package(read limited input from the GFS, the outlier).Most effects on the northern/eastern Gulf coast are expected after the current package, except for increased swell on area beaches and a possible increase in the Rip Risk the end of the week into the coming weekend. Have also toned down the higher PoPs/QPF in the NBM for Friday/Saturday along with adjusting temperatures up a bit. Will continue to monitor, especially with the inconsistencies in the guidance the end of the week.High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 are expected Monday into Thursday. An uptick in cloud cover and southerly push of moisture towards the northern Gulf coast will bring an increase in cloud cover for Friday and Saturday, with a decrease in daytime heating. Low to mid 80s are expected for Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures remain on the more comfortable side, with low to mid 60s along and north of Highway 84 Monday through Wednesday nights before seeing a slight uptick for Thursday and Friday nights as radiational cooling limiting cloud cover increases./16&&.MARINE...Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024Moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will persist overnight before relaxing late this weekend. Seas will also subside into Sunday. Winds will shift east the middle of next week and should increase on Thursday along with building seas. We will need to monitor the possible develop of a tropical system over the western Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week. /22&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 65 88 68 90 68 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 88 72 87 72 89 72 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 74 87 73 87 73 87 72 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 63 88 64 89 65 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 61 85 63 87 64 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 62 84 63 85 64 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 65 90 65 90 66 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
