IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 12:59 PM EDT563
FXUS63 KIND 291659
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1259 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloudy with occasional showers again today
- Chance of fog Monday and Tuesday mornings, locally dense fog
possible Tuesday morning.
- Mainly dry conditions with nearly seasonable temperatures to open
up October
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Forecast is in good shape this morning. A couple of bands of light
rain continue to rotate into the eastern half of the forecast area,
with scattered light rain elsewhere.
Adjusted PoPs to match trends seen on radar. The bands will weaken
during the day as the remnants of Helene continue to weaken.
However, additional scattered showers will develop as some heating
occurs this afternoon. Thus, lowered the coverage of likely PoPs
this afternoon while keeping chance PoPs elsewhere.
Otherwise, look for mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across the area.
Temperatures look reasonable so made no changes other than hourly
forecasts to match recent obs.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Scattered light showers continue to drift southwest across parts of
the forecast area early this morning. Cloudy and damp conditions
persist with 06Z temperatures in the mid and upper 60s.
The remnant surface low that was once Helene continues to fill and
spin across western Kentucky with deep moisture over the Ohio
Valley. The surface wave will weaken further today and become an
open wave as the parent upper low becomes the primary feature. The
upper low will shift east slowly through Monday morning resulting in
a continuation of the largely damp and dreary conditions experienced
since Thursday night while overall shower coverage and intensity
diminishes.
Expect shower coverage to gradually increase from the east through
the morning as a deep moisture rotates counterclockwise around the
remnant low. The loss of stronger forcing aloft however will keep
showers relatively light into the afternoon. Subtle heating by late
today will generate weak instability and this is captured well by
model soundings. May see weak scattered convection develop as a
result during the second half of the afternoon before diminishing by
this evening as what limited heating experienced is lost.
The position of the upper low moving into far eastern Kentucky
tonight will shift deeper moisture east of the region and allow for
drier air aloft to work in. This should serve to cut off any showers
overnight but with a developing inversion trapping moisture within
the boundary layer...skies will remain cloudy with potential for
patchy fog as northeast winds relax.
Temps...the diurnal range will again be limited by clouds and
occasional showers. Low level thermals support upper 60s to mid 70s
from east to west for highs today. Lows will fall into the 60s
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
A return to generally quiet and dry weather is expected during the
long range period. Before that happens, however, the remnants of
Hurricane Helene will still be present to some extent Monday into
Tuesday. By this point, the system is expected to become an ill-
defined swirl. A cold front approaching from the northwest will then
sweep away whatever remains on Tuesday.
Lingering low-level moisture may lead to patchy fog at times Monday
and Tuesday mornings. The overall signal for fog appears better on
Tuesday morning as surface wind diminish almost entirely. Lingering
stratus/stratocu is the primary mitigating factor. Should enough
clearing occur Monday afternoon and evening, then potentially dense
fog could develop overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.
The aforementioned cold front arrives on Tuesday bringing in cooler
air, with highs about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday. Little in the
way of precipitation is expected with the front despite Helene's
moisture still nearby. Most of the deeper moisture will have drifted
east of the region by the time the front arrives. Nevertheless, we
will carry a slight chance of precip on Tuesday mainly across our
eastern counties since a stray shower cannot be ruled out.
A progressive quasi-zonal jet stream should keep things moving,
allowing for a quick rebound with highs returning to the mid and
upper 70s by Thursday. Continued dry conditions with near-average
(74/52 for IND) temperatures persist through the end of the period.
Some members of guidance hint at a secondary cold front arriving
Friday or Saturday, but this too seems dry and transient.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Impacts:
- Some improvement in ceilings likely this afternoon at KLAF/HUF
with lower odds of improvement at KIND/KBMG
- IFR ceilings return tonight with gradual improvement on Monday
- Periodic light showers persist through the day then diminish
tonight
Discussion:
Low level moisture will remain across the sites through Monday.
Heating this afternoon will lift ceilings some. KLAF/KHUF will
likely return to VFR, while KIND/KBMG likely stay MVFR. During the
night, ceilings will return to IFR and potentially worse.
Some fog will develop at KBMG overnight into early Monday.
Gradual improvement will occur on Monday, but MVFR will be
predominant for much of the day.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 12:59 PM EDT---------------
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