NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 27, 7:00 PM AST505
WTNT45 KNHC 271434
TCDAT5
Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024
Isaac is holding steady this morning. Geostationary satellite data
has shown consistent periodic bursts of convection wrapping around a
small eye. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range widely
from 35 kt to 73 kt and the initial intensity is held at 65 kt for
this advisory, closest to the SAB classification.
The hurricane is moving eastward at 12 kt. Isaac is moving along
the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge and should gradually
turn to the east-northeast over the next couple of days. Models are
more in agreement this cycle and show a more northeastward turn on
days 4 and 5 as Isaac interacts with an upper-level trough located
to its east. The latest track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast through 72 h and slightly to the north at forecast periods
beyond.
Isaac could still strengthen further over the next day or so. While
the vertical wind shear is expected to be strong-to-moderate, the
upper-level divergence is forecast to increase and sea surface
temperature should be relatively sufficient. Beyond a day or so,
oceanic and environmental conditions become less conducive, which
should begin to weaken Isaac by Saturday night or Sunday. The
official intensity forecast is very similar to previous advisory,
with a peak intensity of 75 kt by Saturday and the cyclone becoming
extratropical by early next week. However, global models show the
system losing its deep convection by Monday, and the official
forecast now predicts Isaac becoming a post-tropical cyclone at that
point.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 37.4N 46.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 38.1N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 39.4N 40.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 41.0N 38.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 42.4N 36.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 43.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 44.8N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 01/1200Z 48.0N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z 52.1N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 27, 7:00 PM AST---------------
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