LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 1:12 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...727
FXUS63 KLMK 291712
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
112 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Light rain will slowly decrease in coverage today.
* Fog development is likely tonight and Monday night. Patchy dense
fog is also possible.
* Dry weather and seasonal temperatures to come by mid next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
The remnants of Helene will continue to slowly move eastward across
the region this afternoon. Cloudy skies will continue as abundant
low-level moisture remains trapped near the surface. Through the day
a mix of light rain and drizzle will be found across the region.
Will continue to run low chance PoPs for the light rain, but overall
coverage looks to diminish by late afternoon/evening.
Current forecast has this covered pretty well. Will do a quick
refresh of the forecast elements and updated products are in queue.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
The weakening remnant low pressure from Hurricane Helene is
currently located over the Bowling Green area. This low will
continue to weaken over the region today and tonight.
Scattered light rain and thick, overcast skies will slowly begin to
decrease in coverage over the area through the day. By this evening,
we should begin to see bits of broken skies and sunlight peeking
through. Thinning skies will allow temperatures to warm a few
degrees more than yesterday, into the low-mid 70s.
In the overnight hours, this weakening trend will continue with
isolated light rain over the Bluegrass and thinning skies. Due to
these conditions, there is a good signal for fog development.
Patchy, dense fog is possible, although confidence in this is low at
this time due to remaining stratus. Low temperatures will be in the
upper 50s over the Bluegrass and low 60s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Synopsis...Upper-level low will finally spin down on Monday with
remaining vorticity shifting eastward as an open wave given the
influence of northern-stream trough quickly moving across the
US/Canada border. This same trough will push a weak cold front
through the area on Tuesday. Rest of the week will feature broad
surface high pressure, building upper ridging, and quasi-zonal flow
aloft. A more amplified pattern could develop next weekend due to
the interaction of a strong northern-stream trough and
another tropical cyclone tracking across the Gulf of Mexico.
Model Evaluation/Confidence...There is above-average model agreement
regarding the synoptic scale elements through much of the period
which allows high confidence in the forecast. Typical uncertainty
exists, however, next weekend as main global deterministic guidance
depict a completely different scenario regarding the trough/TC
evolution. GFS latest run favors a faster TC and weaker trough which
translates to a drier and warmer forecast. On the other hand, ECMWF
is slower and more amplified, supporting wetter and cooler
conditions.
Monday-Tuesday...Still reflecting mostly cloudy skies during the day
on Monday with light precipitation chances considering saturated
thermodynamic profile below the freezing level and stable low-level
lapse rates. By Monday night, forecast soundings indicated building
mid-level subsidence and drying along with a practically nearly
saturated BL. Therefore, will continue advertising a mix of
fog/stratus with the potential of dense fog in several locations.
Weak cold front on Tuesday will move through the region during the
afternoon/evening hours. Expect isolated to widely scattered
coverage of low-topped showers as mid-level subsidence and dry air
will limit deep convection. Best chance for towering cumulus will be
if the approaching cold front catches up to any pre-existent
mesoscale boundaries.
Wednesday-Friday...Zonal flow aloft will promote dry weather and
seasonable temperatures in the post-frontal airmass. Lowest minimum
temperatures of the week could occur Thursday morning (mid/upper 40s
in southern Indiana to low 50s in south-central Kentucky) amid clear
skies and sufficient CAA under northerly surface winds.
Next Weekend...This period should start dry and under subtle warming
trend, but as mentioned above, considerable uncertainty prevails to
decide for a particular scenario.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Remnant circulation of Helene will continue to slowly spin off to the
east this afternoon and evening. Cigs this afternoon should remain
in the MVFR range with scattered pockets of light rain and drizzle.
We expect the drizzle/light rain to diminish by early evening. For
tonight, 12Z guidance suggests that we'll see some thinning of the
overcast with light winds and abundant low-level moisture. There is
a very strong fog signal here, so will be hitting that hard in the
TAFs from 30/07-13Z where LIFR/VLIFR are expected. Look for the fog
to mix out in the 30/13-15Z time frame.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM....ALL
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 1:12 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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