Author Topic: [Alert]JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 7:30 PM EDT  (Read 408 times)

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JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 7:30 PM EDT

404 
FXUS63 KJKL 282330
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
730 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
 
- There will be a persistent potential for showers at times until
  a cold front passes on Tuesday night.

- Dry weather will arrive behind a cold front for Wednesday and
  then last through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 422 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024

Latest surface analysis and full CONUS satellite imagery continues
to show the remnants of Helene and a stationary surface low, that's
been sitting over the Mid-Mississippi Valley, spinning over west-
central Kentucky. Cyclonic flow around the center is continuing to
bring persistent rain bands through the JKL CWA. Through the
remainder of the day, this massive surface low will continue bring
periods of showers to the Commonwealth. Due to immense cloud cover,
temperatures haven't warmed much minus the far eastern counties
climbing into the 70s; otherwise, everyone else has climbed into the
mid to upper-60s. Overnight, showers will continue exist with
temperatures falling into the upper-50s to low-60s.

Sunday will be a complete carbon copy of today as the surface low
continues to remain largely stationary over the Commonwealth. While
centered a little bit further to the east, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the day with
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon for areas along and east
of US 23. Thunderstorms aren't expected to be severe as instability
and shear for sustaining thunderstorm growth remains negligible.
Temperatures are forecast to climb back into the upper-60s to low-
70s. Moving into Sunday night, showers will begin to taper off as
upper-level forcing begins to grab hold of this circulation and
begin to drag it off to the east. Lingering showers will exist
through the overnight but PoP chances fall from 70-90% to 20-40% for
the Sunday overnight hours. Overnight lows for Sunday will fall into
the upper-50s to lower-60s.

Overall, the period will be highlighted by a slow moving system that
will slowly track to the east through the Commonwealth with periods
of showers and isolated thunderstorms but will gradually taper off
toward the end of the period. High temperatures are forecast to
climb into the upper-60s to low-70s with overnight lows falling a
few degrees into the upper-50s to low-60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 520 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024

A closed upper level low is expected to be centered over eastern
KY at the start of the period, continuing to bring scattered
showers on Monday. The low will be weakening and opening, and as
this happens it will get absorbed back into progressive flow aloft
and accelerate to the east northeast, especially as an upper
trough moves from the northern plains to the Great Lakes Monday
through Tuesday. This should give us a brief period with no rain
in the region overnight Monday night and/or early Tuesday. A
surface cold front associated with the aforementioned upper
trough should approach from the northwest on Tuesday and pass
through Tuesday night. It will bring a possibility of more showers
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Forecast soundings don't look very
supportive of thunder Monday through Tuesday night, with
convection appearing to be capped in the mid levels below the -20C
level.

Behind the cold front, surface high pressure/ridging will build
southeast toward the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday,
bringing a return of dry weather and clearing our skies. The upper
trough supporting the change in air mass will be very progressive
and will quickly depart eastward across New England and the
Canadian Maritimes late Wednesday and Wednesday night. This
leaves us with a zonal flow aloft before upper level ridging
builds over the region to finish the week. With the surface high
departing to our east late in the week, cold air advection will be
replaced by neutral or weak warm air advection. Combined with
rising geopotential heights and mainly clear skies, a warming
trend will occur, with highs likely climbing back into the lower
80s for most of the area by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024

Terminals across the area continue to fluctuate between
VFR/MVFR/IFR as rain bands move north-northeast through the area.
With those showers, decreasing categories and lowered VIS is
expected. Also, showers will begin to increase in coverage as the
center of the surface low starts to shift eastward overnight,
this eastward shift will allow for a decrease in CIG and VIS.
Categories and improvements at terminals will slowly improve
toward the end of the period as CIGS increase into VFR and showers
slowly begin to dissipate. Lastly, light and variable winds are
expected through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 7:30 PM EDT

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