JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 8:05 AM EDT728
FXUS63 KJKL 281205 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers move back into the area today as a stacked area of
surface low pressure beneath an upper low meanders through the
Commonwealth.
- Winds will be much lighter through the weekend compared to
Friday.
- Near, to slightly below, normal temperatures can be expected
through the weekend, but still mild at night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky/PoP grids with this
update. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows the circulation center of Helene's remains
over western Kentucky. This is continuing a flow of easterly -
with an increasing southeast component - air into this part of the
state. This helped to create a lull in the pcpn from late Friday
afternoon until early this morning thanks to a downslope component
to that fetch along with the ghost of Helene working slowly west.
This retrograding progress is modeled to stop soon as the whole
system starts to work back east - filling and weakening. This
seems to be happening now and as a result the thicker clouds and
more solid area of showers have started to work back east into the
JKL CWA early this morning. Thankfully, the winds have settled
and will remain much more benign through the rest of the short
term portion of the forecast. Currently, temperatures are mostly
in the mid and upper 60s while dewpoints are running in the low
60s. Winds currently, exhibit that spin around the center of
Helene's remnants with east at 5 to 10 mph obs noted north and
more southerly ones at similar speeds to the south while gusts are
still occasionally pushing 20 mph. Patchy fog has accompanied the
renewed rains in the west and we saw some earlier with the clear
patches in the east.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in very
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast as the atmosphere continues to come into better balance
and fights to erase the negative height anomaly over western
parts of the state. They all depict a deep stacked 5h low, near
PAH this morning, drifting back east and weakening through Sunday
evening - and beyond. This process will wring out and lessen the
mid level energy around its core - while helping to drive the
high pcpn chances for us through the period. The spread among the
models is small enough that the NBM was used without as much
reservation for the starting point of the grids - notwithstanding
the inclusion of some PoP timing details from the CAMs through
Sunday.
Sensible weather features a return of quieter but still damp
weather for the weekend as a stacked sfc low moves in lock step
with its parent upper level low - creeping east into the JKL area
of responsibility. This means high PoPs and low to moderate QPF
arriving west to east through the today. The delay in the east
will likely allow them to be 5 or so degrees warmer for highs this
afternoon while conditions will be more uniform tonight and on
Sunday within the heart of the stacked low. The highest QPF
amounts look to favor our Bluegrass counties northwest of I-64
with lighter amounts elsewhere. Even there, the rainfall is not
expected to fall at a high enough rate to cause any water issues -
instead should merely dampen weekend activities and ongoing
clean-up/restoration efforts. Some sfc based instability does
start to build on Sunday and for this reason we could see a few
of the showers get tall enough for some lightning activity by
afternoon - mainly east. Clouds and showers will keep temperatures
uniform and mild tonight - limiting the potential for denser fog
and the more typical valley temperature drop-offs.
The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
including some PoP details from the CAMs into those grids. The low
amplitude diurnal temperature curve depicted from the NBM looked
reasonable for most places and was left alone - save for some
sparse spot high or low temperature tweaks.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024
The forecast period will begin with remnants of Helene slowly
exiting east, as the mid-level low becomes an open wave to the east
of the Ohio Valley. This feature will keep the weather active
through Tuesday, with daily chances of showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm at times. Then a weakening cold front approaches from
the west by early Wednesday and will keep the weather active for one
more day. The good news is despite the potential for unsettled
weather the NBM is only suggesting a quarter inch or less of
rainfall Monday into Wednesday.
There remains good agreement that as a northern stream trough pushes
eastward across the Great Lakes and will aid in pushing the
previously mentioned cold front across the Ohio Valley. This will
help usher in a drier and cooler airmass by the end of the week into
the weekend, as there is good agreement on high pressure building
in at the surface. Given this opted to decrease valley lows
closer to the tenth percentile of the NBM, with valleys dropping
into the low to mid 40s Thursday and Friday mornings.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024
At TAF issuance time, VFR and some MVFR conditions are noted
through the area. Winds are generally southeasterly at 5 to 10
kts with occasional gusts to up to around 20 kts. Look for mainly
MVFR (but some IFR) ceilings and fog moving in from west to east
this morning as the remains of Helene wobble back toward the area.
This will bring a large batch of light to moderate showers through
the forecast area. KSJS should remain VFR the longest but
eventually succumb this afternoon. Look for winds to settle to
light and variable by evening. For tonight the dreary conditions
continue with IFR or lower conditions abounding amid showers low
clouds and areas of fog.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 8:05 AM EDT---------------
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