LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 6, 11:22 AM CDT ...New UPDATE...692
FXUS64 KLIX 061622
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1122 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Refreshed grids with current conditions to account for location of
front. /DSS/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Upper pattern this morning has a trough extending from Ontario
Canada across the southern Plains States into northern Mexico. At
the surface the cold front at 3 AM CDT extended from near McComb
to just west of Baton Rouge to Morgan City. Showers and
thunderstorms were occurring across much of southern Mississippi
and southern Louisiana. Tornado Watch 129 remains in effect for
Amite, Pike and Walthall Counties in southwest Mississippi and
East Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes in southeast Louisiana as
of 3 AM. Temperatures were between 75 and 80 ahead of the front,
but dropping into the 60s behind the front.
The upper trough and surface cold front are going to progress very
slowly eastward today, with the front taking the entire day to
move through our CWA. The upper ridge off the Atlantic Coast will
prevent the upper trough axis from exiting the area through
Monday. A couple of shortwaves moving through the trough will
continue the threat of showers and storms for much of the day
today, and overnight across the east half of the area. While the
threat for severe weather should diminish this morning, the threat
for heavy rain will continue today. Precipitable water values
early this morning continued to range from 1.6 to 1.9 inches
across the area. While areas west of Interstate 55 should see
those moisture levels lower later this morning, drying east of
there is going to take until late this afternoon or this evening,
especially along the Mississippi coast. Rain amounts of 1 to 2
inches are likely to be common across most of the area, with
locally higher amounts in a few locations. Fortunately, it has
been warm and dry over the last 5 days, so unless those rain
amounts fall in a very short time, most of the area should be able
to tolerate those amounts. With the slow movement of the front,
we will need to monitor for the potential of cell training,
however.
Little in the way of sunshine is anticipated until perhaps Monday
afternoon, when the trough axis pushes the moisture east of the
area.
Temperatures will drop off about 10-15 degrees behind the front,
with not much in the way of recovery expected during the day.
Overnight lows tonight will be as much as 20 degrees cooler than
the last couple of days. Highs Monday will be in the 60s, with
considerably lower humidity levels.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
As ridging builds into the Rockies, that will produce
northwesterly flow aloft across our area. Surface high pressure
will move across the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast during the
second half of the workweek. A strong shortwave moving through the
upper trough to our east will bring a cold front into the area
Thursday night or Friday. There will be no significant moisture
return ahead of the front. A few showers cannot be entirely ruled
out as the front moves through, but right now, rain chances are
too low to carry in the forecast.
Compared to the last few days, it's going to feel significantly
cooler, especially in the mornings. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings
will see lows in the 40s across most of the area, and wouldn't be
totally surprised to see a few normally cooler spots briefly drop
into the upper 30s. Those readings would be 10-15 degrees below
normal. With dry air in place, temperatures will rebound pretty
well during the day with highs in the 70s for much of the
workweek. Slightly cooler air will get reinforced behind the
frontal passage on Friday before moderating again going into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Frontal boundary near a KBXA to KHUM line at forecast issuance
time, but will only be making slow eastward progress over the next
few hours. While most ceilings are at MVFR, KHDC and KMCB are
reporting IFR or lower conditions. Areal coverage of SHRA/TSRA has
diminished somewhat over the last couple hours as best lifting
mechanism is pulling to the northeast. However, there are
scattered SHRA/TSRA well behind the front into east Texas, so
there will be a continued threat for them through much of the
daytime hours. While the threat of severe storms has diminished,
IFR or lower conditions, at least for short periods, could occur
at just about any time during the daylight hours. Drier air moving
into the area overnight should bring at least improvement to MVFR
ceilings prior to 06z Monday for most terminals, but ceilings
improving above FL030 may not occur much before 18z Monday.
The passage of the frontal boundary will shift surface winds to
west and then northwest, at lower wind speeds than what we've seen
for the last couple days. The exception to that will be at KNEW
overnight, where drier air moving across Lake Pontchartrain could
still produce sustained winds near 20 knots at the shoreline.
Those wind speeds should diminish around sunrise Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Wind speeds should drop off behind the frontal passage later
today, but it will take a bit longer for wave conditions to relax.
Will leave the Small Craft Advisories in place as currently
configured. Likely to need a period of Small Craft Exercise
Caution headlines, especially over the open coastal waters, in the
wake of the front through at least Monday and perhaps into
Tuesday. Quieter marine conditions are expected for the second
half of the workweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 61 41 70 / 20 10 0 0
BTR 51 63 42 72 / 20 10 0 0
ASD 53 65 43 73 / 60 30 0 0
MSY 56 64 51 71 / 50 30 0 0
GPT 53 64 45 72 / 80 50 0 0
PQL 54 66 43 72 / 90 60 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ570-572-575-
577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 6, 11:22 AM CDT ...New UPDATE...---------------
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