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415 FXUS64 KLIX 081617AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1117 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026- Starting the work week with overall less coverage in daily afternoon rain/storm chances. However, rain chances pick up later in the week into the weekend.- Afternoon max heat indicies reach into the 100-105F range late week and into the weekend. - Further slow easing of tide levels is expected over the next few days.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Thursday)Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026Starting off with late this morning taking a look at the upper-levels, we've entered a bit of a broad ridging pattern taking over most of the southern and SE US. This has led to a steady decrease in available lift/dynamic forcing for enhanced shower/storm coverage like we've seen the past several days, turning back to a more summertime-like diurnally driven isolated storm risk. GOES-16 satellite trends, as mentioned in the morning update highlights a few patchy mid/upper-level clouds coinciding with a tongue of H5-H3 moisture advecting from south Texas to the SE US. Coverage is thin/broken up enough to not impact Cu development as we're continuing to see. Proximity soundings illustrate what's going on outside the window well, showing an evident dry slug/compressional warming in the low- levels, and noticeable positive buoyancy between the bottom of this inversionand LCL supporting shallow Cu development. 12Z HRRR came in a bitmore with coverage later today, which supports the morning uptickin PoP's that will remain in place today as we should see diurnally- supported shallow showers/storms primarily across the Atchafalaya Basin to the Florida Parishes/SW MS. Again, not a whole lot of coverage (15% currently) but could see a passing shower or storm at times.Quiet tonight, then rinse/repeat for tomorrow. However, could seea rather evident lake/seabreeze boundary, skewed to the west somedue to SE winds. This typically sets up the zone of greatest confluence from the Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas lakebreeze pressing SW from the lakes and coastal SE LA seabreeze racing north to support a zone of greatest scattered shower/storm chancesalong the MS river parishes or Atchafalya Basin, in a broader sense areas west of I-55. Same story for Thursday. As for temps all days, we'll see highs uptick a little bit each day, likely reaching the low 90's for many areas Wed and Thu as webecome settled under the center of a southern US 588dm ridge. No adjustments were needed for highs as deterministic values are coming in reasonable. KLG&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday)Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026Late-week, indications are pointing at the dominant ridge tosteadily break down, revealing an uptick in mainly late morningthrough evening scattered rain/storm chances. Don't want to getinto the weeds this far out with details, but there are hints of astrong upper-level trough diving into the northern/central plains,breaking down the ridge and providing NW flow, or even a front eventually into the northern Gulf coast states. This could lead to a few MCS's into SE US or coastal areas, just remains to be seen. KLG&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026Primarily VFR conditions are expected for all area terminalsthrough the forecast period. CIGs this afternoon from SCT/BKN Cuwill bounce around 025-040 with times, with winds primarily lightin the 06-10kt range. Could see a a few SCT RA/TSRA mainly forterminals east of I-59, but impacts will be limited with onlybrief/temporary VIS/CIG reductions but will be VFR outside of anyof this activity. KLG&&.MARINE...Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026High pressure anchored off the mid-atlantic coastline will continue to provide onshore, primarily weak SE flow which will promote weak/calm waves seas through the rest of the week. Scattered rain/storm chances will increase later in the week into the weekend. Winds and seas will be higher in and near any thunderstorm activity that does occur. KLG&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...KLGLONG TERM....KLGAVIATION...KLGMARINE...KLG
