LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 10:46 AM EDT237
FXUS63 KLMK 281446
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1046 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Wind gusts diminishing as Helene's low pressure center continues
to fill in over western Kentucky.
* Widespread rain still expected overnight into Saturday, with an
additional 1 to 2 inches possible.
* Dry weather and seasonal temperatures to come by mid next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
The surface low is located between Bowling Green and Land Between
the Lakes this morning, and is filling at a rate of just under
1mb/hr. The low will drift northeastward towards Mammoth Cave NP
this afternoon and early evening as it continues to weaken.
The forecast is in good shape, with overcast skies and patchy light
to moderate rain persisting. The heaviest 8am-8pm EDT rainfall
amounts should be generally east of I-65 and north of the Cumberland
Parkway, on the order of 2/3-3/4". The gustiest winds will be over
southern and eastern sections of central Kentucky, reaching 20-
25mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
As the remnants of Hurricane Helene spin over the region and slowly
weaken, the region will remain under cloudy, rainy, and breezy
conditions through tonight.
Winds are currently gusting 20-30mph, and will continue to slowly
relax through the short term. The upper level low, sufficient
moisture, and low level convergence will support continued light
stratiform rain with scattered chances for moderate rainfall rates.
In the overnight hours, rain chances will slowly begin to decrease.
Expecting to see an additional 1-1.5 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals possible. Steady, soaking, light rain is not likely to
bring flash flood conditions but minor ponding is possible.
Therefore, the Flood Watch will be cancelled with this forecast
package.
Temperatures are not expected to depart but a few degrees from the
low this morning, due to overcast skies and rain. High is expected
to be in the mid-upper 60s. Sunday morning low is expected to be in
the low-mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Synopsis...Upper-level low will slowly drift to the east this
weekend into early next week as it remains sandwiched by upper
ridge to the west and anticyclone over Bahamas. The low will weaken
substantially before a northern-stream trough breaks the lock and
steers the remaining open-wave energy towards the Atlantic. In
addition, the trough will push a cold front across the region on
Tuesday with surface high pressure/upper ridge settling in the rest
of the week.
Model Evaluation/Confidence...Medium to high confidence in the
evolution of the large-scale pattern and associated weather
conditions given model agreement.
Sunday-Monday...Residual moisture trapped in the upper low
circulation will maintain cloudy skies and elevated precipitation
chances. Considering forecast thermodynamic profiles, rainfall
should transition from moderate (Sunday) to light (Monday) given the
presence of dry air in the mid levels. Therefore, no flooding
concerns are anticipated during this period while little to no
instability inhibits thunderstorm chances. Given the position of the
upper low and a presence of drier air in the lower levels, some
sunshine could filter on Monday.
Tuesday...Weak cold front will move through the region during the
afternoon/evening hours. Expect isolated to widely scattered
coverage of low-topped showers (if any) as mid-level subsidence and
dry air will limit deep convection.
Wednesday - Friday...Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are
expected in the post-frontal airmass. Lowest minimum temperatures of
the week could occur Thursday morning considering clear skies and
sufficient CAA under northerly surface winds.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Remnants of Hurricane Helene will continue to spin over the Ohio
Valley today. This will result in breezy conditions and widespread
rain. MVFR and IFR CIGs/VIS will prevail through this TAF cycle at
all terminals. Winds are gusting up to 20kts currently, and these
will slowly relax through the day.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13/RJS
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...ALL
AVIATION...SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 10:46 AM EDT---------------
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