ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 7:54 PM EDT197
FXUS61 KILN 272354
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
754 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The area of low pressure associated with Helene continues to bring
unsettled weather to the region through the weekend. Periods of rain will
continue Saturday and Sunday. Seasonal temperatures continue through the
weekend, with highs in the seventies.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Wind update...
Canceled the High Wind Warning with wind decreasing quite
quickly across the warned area. At the time of the cancellation,
winds were still at advisory levels in Indiana and west-central
Ohio, therefore, a wind advisory was left in place. This will
likely be canceled before 10 pm. Even though headlines have been
dropped for much of the area, winds will remain elevated over
the next few hours. Around the I-70 corridor, winds are still in
the 25 to 35 mph range.
Previous discussion...
The remnants of Helene continue to move through the region near
the start of the period, merging with the upper level low in the
area, with the surface center of the extratropical low moving
northwest into Kentucky. The ILN CWA remains on the
northern/northeastern side of the system, under a tight pressure
gradient. Strong winds will continue through the evening hours,
however, most gusts will remain comfortably in the advisory
range (46-57 MPH) with only a few gusts reaching warning
criteria (58 MPH+). Despite this, given the numerous reports of
trees down, power outages, and traffic issues, have opted to
maintain the High Wind Warning for at least several more hours,
especially given the dry slot working its way into the
southeastern portion of the CWA, which may promote some higher
gusts. Gusts will diminish rapidly between 8 PM and midnight.
After this, winds will remain out of the northeast, but only
around 10 MPH.
Moderate to heavy widespread precipitation will taper off this
evening, becoming a bit more scattered in nature as the outer
bands of precip continue to spiral through. Overnight low
temperatures fall into the low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the low pressure continues to spin near the KY/IN/IL borders,
another push of energy will rotate around the low, pushing
an additional slug of rainfall into the region on Saturday
morning. Precipitation will again be light to moderate in
nature, moving into the area from south to north and should
linger most of the day Saturday. However, winds will not be as
strong as Friday, only reaching around 10 MPH. Daytime high
temperatures remain on the cooler side given the ample cloud
cover and periods of rain, with highs in the upper 60s to low
70s.
By Saturday evening, the upper level low pressure continues to
lose intensity/ open up and precipitation chances diminish
slightly as we head into the overnight hours. Winds remain out
of the northeast, around 5 to 10 MPH. Overnight low temperatures
fall to the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not much to speak of during this period of the forecast, at least
from a forecast challenge standpoint. Upper low circulation remains
in northern KY over southern CWA from Sunday night through Monday.
Monday night will see the low become an open wave with mid level
ridging in the Ohio Valley. Both Sunday night and Monday night will
see a significant lull in any precip. A slight uptick during the day
will be found but any precip should remain scattered and generally
light. On Tuesday night, an upper low and surface cold front will
cross, keeping a low threat of rain in the northeastern CWA early in
the evening. Surface high pressure will build over the Midwest at
daybreak Wednesday and be centered over the CWA towards nightfall
Wednesday night. The high continues a rapid progression eastward as
the westerly flow aloft if fairly deep and at a good clip.
Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal for highs during
this time, with lows running 10-15 degrees above. One exception here
is Wednesday night in the post-frontal atmosphere where near normal
readings are expected for both highs and lows, likely lasting
through Thursday night. The coolest time here will be Wednesday
night with readings generally in the mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds have decreased significantly from earlier this afternoon,
but 20 to 30 knot gusts will persist for a few more hours before
gradually weakening to sustained winds around 10 to 15 knots.
The low pressure continues to pivot through the region this
evening, with rain diminishing from east to west. One band of
heavier rain still persists from DAY to ILN, and will eventually
make its way to CMH and LCK. CIGs and VIS may still be MVFR to
possible IFR at times before this band moves out after 04Z.
CIGs and VIS improve back to VFR conditions overnight. However,
this lull in precip is short lived; as the system continues to
rotate, additional rain will be wrapped around and push north
into all TAF sites after 09Z Saturday morning. CIGs will likely
drop again to MVFR and then IFR during the latter portion of the
TAF. Visibility will also drop to MVFR within period of rain.
OUTLOOK....MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Saturday
night into Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ042-051>053-
060>062-070.
KY...None.
IN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-
066-073-074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 7:54 PM EDT---------------
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